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Trends in operator spending, datacenter optics, and sanity checking the optics forecast for AI applications.

Key themes to watch – AI, 800G, and everything else

Cignal AI is tracking announcements of Gen120 (120+ GBaud, 1+Tbps) optical trials and deployments.

AOI made news recently with its intention to sell its Chinese manufacturing facilities and partnership with Microsoft for laser development.

France-based Ekinops has grown rapidly on a reputation for customer attentiveness and product focus.

Inputs, Assumptions, and Feedback

The latest 120+ GBaud coherent technology is arriving.

Will 400ZR and its variants usher in the long-awaited era of IP-over-DWDM? 

It has been two years since a new high-performance coherent optical generation was commercially introduced and it’s time for new generation announcements. Expect to hear more about Gen120P at OFC23.

OFC23 will offer an opportunity to see how much further and faster direct detect optics will take communications inside the data center

Understanding the next wave of 100Gbps and 200Gbps PAM4-based modules

Market Focus Slides Available for Download

Learn How Network Operators Will Build and Deploy Coherent Technology In Access Networks

These companies announced a collaboration on QSFP28 100ZR modules. This report is Cignal AI’s analysis of that announcement and its implications.

The Transport Application Report now includes ROADM & line system deployment data

Slides available

Pluggable coherent deployments are underway. Learn how this powerful technology is transforming network architecture.

Here is a sneak peek of the hot topics of discussion at OFC 2022

Learn How High-Performance Coherent Pluggables Can Address a Broad Set of Network Applications

The historical classification of coherent optical technology (Gen1, Gen2, etc.) is no longer sufficient. Therefore, Cignal AI will now recognize and classify coherent DSP technology by its maximum baud rate and whether the DSP is optimized for Performance or Compact applications.

Quick thoughts on equipment spending trends as well as a current view on the role of pluggable coherent modules.

Cignal AI continues to track announcements of 5th generation (800Gbps-capable, 90+ GBaud) optical trials and deployments.

Compact Modular sales (and hence disaggregation) have historically lagged in APAC versus the rest of the world, so APAC’s sudden and extraordinary growth over the past few quarters means that something has changed and deserves a closer look.

Get ready for the 2021 rollout with commentary from Inphi, Arista, and Microsoft on evaluation results and plans for rolling out 400ZR in 2021.

Explore a New Era of open Transport Networking. Hear Infinera & Telefonica’s Perspective on defining and delivering open optical networking.

Overview and analysis of Nokia’s fifth generation of coherent DSPs, the PSE-Vs, and PSE-Vc.

Cignal AI updated the 2020 optical and packet transport hardware forecast with our best estimates of the impact of COVID-19.

The Optical Fiber Communications Conference is the most significant industry trade and technical show for optical communications. In preparation for the event, Cignal AI has compiled a list of what to watch at OFC and what announcements to expect.

Cignal AI invites you to attend an overview presentation about the expansion of Cignal AI’s optical hardware research to include comprehensive coverage of packet switching and routing in service provider transport networks.

Forward-looking operators use disaggregation to build agile optical transport networks.

Andrew Schmitt gave a presentation on July 30th, 2019 during the Optical Internetworking Forum quarterly meeting. He was asked to give a brief overview of emerging pluggable coherent technologies and the opportunity this new market presents.

Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware, recently moderated a discussion on “Disaggregation Strategies & Transport SDN” in advance of the NGON & DCI World conference in Nice. Scott…

Scott Wilkinson and Andrew Schmitt gave presentations about 5G and 400ZR during the OFC2019 Marketwatch program. Download a copy of their slides.

The 2019 Optical Fiber Conference is less than a month away. Cignal AI’s analysts have compiled a list of predictions and expectations for what we expect to see from vendors and other OFC participants.

On August 2, 2018 Cignal AI hosted its first webinar Optical Market Trends Now: ADVA

Lead analyst Andrew Schmitt joined Ulrich Dopfer, ADVA CFO and Stephan Rettenberger, ADVA Senior VP of Marketing and Investor Relations to provide their various perspectives on the optical industry.

Andrew Schmitt was invited by Packet Pushers and Scott Wilkinson of ECI to participate in one of its weekly podcasts. While not well known in the service provider world, it is popular among the network engineers of small to large Enterprises. Each podcast has about 10,000 downloads per episode.

On April 16, the United States Department of Commerce announced that ZTE would no longer be allowed to import American technology products. While there is no shortage of media coverage of the ban, Cignal AI aims to provide you with unique insight. We have assembled our observations and conclusions on this remarkable event, and we share answers to some common questions we’ve received as it has transpired.

Each year, OFC showcases the most noteworthy developments in the optical industry, and this year was no exception. Companies utilized OFC as a venue to announce and demonstrate new products…

Each year at OFC, we have the valuable opportunity to hear from the network operators themselves to better understand their vision for the future network. This year, there were some…

When the conversation at OFC turned to short reach client optics, faster speeds were the central focus.  Several companies announced products and gave demonstrations of 400G capable technology. The 100G…

Trends in coherent technology generated enthusiasm among the participants at OFC 2018, and 400G ZR applications were of particular interest. Nokia and Infinera outlined next-generation coherent roadmaps, and Acacia and…

Compact Modular Equipment took center stage at OFC 2018

On March 6, 2018, Nokia announced its fourth generation coherent optical technology, the PSE-3, which continues the company’s strategy of developing coherent DSP processors in-house.

Each year, there is at least one announcement at OFC which surprises the industry. In 2016, the announcement was the introduction of Inphi’s ColorZ, while in 2017 it was news…

Andrew Schmitt was the featured speaker on an investor call hosted by Troy Jensen of Piper Jaffray on February 21st. Forty-four participants listened in and posed their questions as Andrew…

This is Cignal AI’s second ECOC 2017 brief, focused on news out of China.

Topics include:

China Inventory and 2018 Demand Ciena Wavelogic AI Licensing Update China ROADM Deployment Outlook…

Andrew Schmitt’s presentation, entitled “Mapping the Future of Optical Deployments,” was one of several featured during this years ECOC Market Focus sessions in Gothenburg, Sweden September 18-20th.

The presentation highlights…

ECOC is one of the most significant conferences in optical networking worldwide. This year’s conference was held in Gothenburg, Sweden, and the event was well attended by the engineering community,…

After much of the world already transitioned to all-optically switched ROADM networks, Chinese network operators are preparing to follow suit. Most networks outside of China used optical switching as early…

Andrew Schmitt’s keynote presentation, entitled “Ways to Achieve Network Openness“, kicked off the 2017 Next Gen Optical Networking event in Nice, France on June 20th. The presentation, which highlights Cignal…

In our final OFC 2017 report we discuss new product announcements on purpose-built datacenter hardware and components, and share our thoughts on market developments.

There was a new cult this year at OFC, the ‘Cult of Open.’ It formed from rising sentiment that the lack of interoperability of vendors in optical networks is a major…

400G Coherent and Beyond
Ciena had a blockbuster announcement at OFC 2017, but there was plenty of other interesting news to feast on. Cignal AI’s key takeaways concerning coherent…

100G and the Road to 400G

The transition to 100G network speeds inside the data center is underway at every major hyperscale operator simultaneously, creating major industry bottlenecks. Despite QSFP28…

Andrew Schmitt provided key OFC 2017 takeaways during an investor call hosted by Troy Jensen of Piper Jaffray.

This past October, Ciena announced its new coherent DSP, dubbed Wavelogic Ai. Ciena used the announcement to convey its coherent 100G+ roadmap and support for 400G. Ciena also hinted at important changes…

Intel’s financial results provide useful insight into the economic activities of the Cloud and Colo market. Effectively all of the CPUs (and now FPGAs) used in data centers come from…

Andrew Schmitt gave an update on the optical equipment and component market during an investor call hosted by Troy Jensen of Piper Jaffray on Tuesday, October 4. Sixty-eight investors participated….

Andrew Schmitt presented at the ECOC (European Conference for Optical Communications) in Dusseldorf, Germany during the week of Sept. 19. No time was wasted during the trip as Andrew fit…

Andrew Schmitt has returned from a week of meetings in Europe including three days at the European Conference on Optical Communications (ECOC). He spoke to a capacity crowd at the…

Acacia is scheduled to report earnings on August 11th, and this will be the company’s first quarterly report since completing its recent IPO. In April 2016, Cignal AI examined Acacia’s…

Andrew presented the keynote presentation to kick off Next Gen Optical Networking in Nice, France on June 29th. His presentation was titled “Making Technology Decisions in a Challenging Environment”, and…

Andrew Schmitt created some excitement when he spoke about optical component and equipment market trends on a Piper Jaffray investor call on April 22. 83 investor clients were on the…

Andrew presented “Metro DCI – What’s Next?” at the annual OSA Executive Forum before OFC 2016. His slides focused on the evolution of metro DCI and highlighted the opportunity for…

Component and equipment vendors outlined the investments they are making in anticipation of some service providers adopting open line systems or fully dis-aggregated optical systems. This is a contentious technology…

The optical networking world finally gets a close up view of Acacia’s performance as the company is filing for an IPO. The most recent S-1/A filing by Acacia includes 2015 financial details, which we review through the lenses of Cignal AI’s customer and market knowledge in order to create a fine-grained view of the company’s performance and qualitative outlook. This analysis includes a detailed projection of customer composition for 90%+ of revenue, market share within entire 100G market, and estimates of ASPs beyond what is included in public documents.

The optical component industry is changing from one in which existing InP and discrete designs are replicated in SiPho to a new approach under which the unique benefits of SiPho…

The US Commerce department just dropped a bomb on ZTE, requiring all US companies to obtain an export license if they wish to do business with the company. Article updated…

OFC is just a few short weeks away now, and some key themes are coming into focus for the conference. Registered users may read this article, no subscription required.Continue…

Ciena applies for membership to the exclusive Indium Phosphide club.Continue Reading