Andrew presented the keynote presentation to kick off Next Gen Optical Networking in Nice, France on June 29th. His presentation was titled “Making Technology Decisions in a Challenging Environment”, and used Cignal AI’s recently released optical equipment market data to support observations of the market.

A few notes on the presentation:

  • The past few years have seen long haul WDM equipment outperform as 100G technology took over the market, but spending here will flatten as spending rotates to metro WDM in 2017.
  • 2016 is a weaker year as technology improvements for metro WDM reach market, including cheaper CDC ROADMs and CFP2-ACOs.
  • Market share gains accumulate to only the large vendors; specialized vendors are surviving, not thriving, and mid-market vendors have struggled.
  • Outside of China, macro spending growth is scarce and this will not change.
  • Customer requirements are diverging at the same time spending is flat; this will force suppliers to identify customers and markets where they can be successful. Not everyone will be right, and this is an unforgiving environment for poor customer and technology decisions.
  • Direct detect 100G technology will be a niche application for a handful of Webco’s with the capability to deploy this technology; coherent technology will improve and displace it.

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