Our 1H17 edition of the Optical Hardware Applications report has been released.
The report contains details on the following areas:
- Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
- 100G+ Coherent port shipments vendor market share
- 100G, 200G, and 400G+ Coherent and Direct Detect port shipments and forecast
- Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts
This report includes significant updates and enhancements:
- Initiated a coherent 400G port shipment forecast, estimating demand for 400G wavelengths in CY17 and beyond, including the upcoming 400G ZR pluggable format. The forecast also quantifies the emergence of coherent 100G in volume at the edge of the optical network. A more detailed written analysis sharing the assumptions behind this forecast will be published in the coming weeks. In the meantime, we welcome feedback on the quantitative forecast.
- Renamed DCI Hardware category to “Compact Modular”. DCI is an application, not a hardware category, and these compact, modular chassis are being used in several applications, including DCI. As Incumbent, Cable MSO, and Wholesale operators evaluate and deploy these systems it is important that this category name better reflect the defining characteristics of these systems. A listing of the specific systems in this category can be found here.
- Added 1H17 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware. Also updated coherent port shipment market share to include vendor results for 1H17.
- Compact Modular hardware forecast increased in 2017 and 2018 as result of discussions with vendors. This is a bottoms-up change with the risk that multiple vendors are double-counting the same opportunities.
- Historical 100G+ Port Shipments adjusted to align with actual customer shipment data.
Current subscribers can download Excel and PowerPoint files.
In our final OFC 2017 report we discuss new product announcements on purpose-built datacenter hardware and components, and share our thoughts on market developments.
- Evolution of the compact DCI market, including recently published 4Q16 market share and adoption by new customers
- New products and solutions, investigating announcements by Nokia, Fujitsu, and Juniper
- Direct detect – one year later, the appearance of Ranovus, and network operator of the technology’s long term prospects
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.
Ranovus announces a new direct detect solution in CFP2 DCO format, joining InPhi in offering solutions to the DCI marketplace.
“The performance, cost and power requirements of DCI make it the most demanding DWDM application. These requirements force customers to seek leading edge technology and Direct Detect technology is well suited to compete against coherent options for shorter reaches,” said Andrew Schmitt, founder and lead analyst at Cignal AI. “It is great to see the industry pushing forward with competitive solutions that can address high volume metro DCI applications.”
On February 27th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 4th quarter 2016 (4Q16). This second report, issued on March 9th, extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.
Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 4Q16 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A compilation of our latest analysis is also available in both web format as well as .pdf.
There were some minor changes to our forecast during 4Q16:
- Updated LH v Metro WDM mix in Japan to adjust for 100G rollout
- Adjusted SLTE forecast to moderate declines in later years
- Slight changes to EMEA and NA for 2017 based on CY16 results.
A detailed discussion of our near and long term forecasts follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.
Andrew Schmitt gave an update on the optical equipment and component market during an investor call hosted by Troy Jensen of Piper Jaffray on Tuesday, October 4. Sixty-eight investors participated. An extended Q&A session followed Andrew’s presentation, and topics of interest included:
- China 100G port volume trends for 2H16 and 2017
- Huawei’s upcoming 100G technology decisions and supplier purchasing shifts
- CFP2-ACO shipments and the component & equipment supply chain for this product
- Coherent DSP R&D developments and supplier updates
- Updates on direct-detect 100G and PAM-4 development
- Observations on Infinera, Ciena, Acacia, Inphi, and Clariphy and discussion of potential M&A activity
Following is a summary of the key takeaways, as well as a full transcript of the discussion. Cignal AI clients can also listen to an audio replay.
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