1Q18 Optical Hardware Tracker

The Cignal AI 1st quarter 2018 (1Q18) Optical Hardware market share tracker is active. This tracker allows clients to download a real-time view of industry results as companies report results. Updates are made continuously and are reflected in the tracking table below.
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4Q17 Optical Customer Markets Report

The 4Q17 edition of the Optical Customer Markets report has been released. It provides insight into how much optical equipment different network operators purchase:

  • Covers 4 global regions and five end customer types with quarterly granularity
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo, Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Forecasts by region and customer type
  • Includes detailed vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • Follows strict methodology to reduce analyst subjectivity

Notable updates include:

  • Updated results by customer market for all of 2017
  • Vendor market share of equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers for all four quarters of 2017
  • Updated PowerPoint report summary
  • Report updates are now quarterly

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

4Q17 Optical Applications Report

The 4Q17 edition of the Optical Hardware Applications report has been released. The report contains details on the following areas:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G+ coherent port shipments & vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent, 400G ZR and direct detect port shipments and forecast
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

This release has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Updates to the 400G port shipment methodology, simplifying the categorization of ports. Physical port shipments are no longer defined by reach. All 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent port shipments are counted, as well as direct detect and 400G ZR for edge applications.
  • Added 3Q and 4Q17 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware.
  • Updated coherent port shipment market share to include Inphi ColorZ historical numbers. Despite not being a coherent solution, it does displace the use of coherent 100G and its impact should be measured.
  • The Compact Modular hardware forecast was increased again. This market continues to grow at rates that outstrip the most optimistic projections.
  • Report updates are now quarterly.

Current subscribers can download Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

OFC 2018 – Coherent Technology

Trends in coherent technology generated enthusiasm among the participants at OFC 2018, and 400G ZR applications were of particular interest. Nokia and Infinera outlined next-generation coherent roadmaps, and Acacia and NTT Electronics showcased silicon fresh back from the fab. Many component companies announced smaller, lower cost devices to enable new WDM applications. In this report, Cignal AI examines OFC 2018’s coherent technology announcements and their implications.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

OFC 2018 – Compact Modular Equipment

Compact Modular Equipment took center stage at OFC 2018. News included speed upgrades to existing systems, the emergence of new switch/router variants, and open line systems designed to address the growing interest in optical hardware disaggregation.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

Nokia PSE-3 Coherent Chipset

On March 6, 2018, Nokia announced its fourth generation coherent optical technology, the PSE-3, which continues the company’s strategy of developing coherent DSP processors in-house. Nokia is betting that these chips will differentiate the performance, price, and availability of its optical hardware products.

This Cignal AI report explores what makes the new PSE-3s different from off-the-shelf solutions and examines the question of whether or not vertical integration still makes sense in this market.

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Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

4Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On February 14th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 4th quarter 2017 (4Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2022.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 4Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 4Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

 

We extended our forecasts for revenue and ports to 2022, and made minor adjustments to our worldwide 2019 and longer-term forecasts; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

Investor Call – Piper Jaffray Optical Event

Andrew Schmitt was the featured speaker on an investor call hosted by Troy Jensen of Piper Jaffray on February 21st. Forty-four participants listened in and posed their questions as Andrew gave his perspective on the latest events in the optical component and equipment market.

Topics during the call included:

  • Anticipated impact of China’s MIIT plan on existing component suppliers
  • The divergence in Chinese equipment revenue and supply chain
  • The market outlook for ROADMs in 2018
  • The 400G+ Coherent DSP and component outlook
  • The evolution of the CFP2-ACO and DCO market
  • Analysis of equipment companies outsourcing DSPs
  • Update on Inphi’s ColorZ, modulator driver, and PAM-4 business
  • Infinera’s market opportunity with the CX2 and ICE4 based products
  • North American CapEx in 2018 and optical equipment forecast
  • Ciena’s 400G market monopoly in 2018

Active Insight clients can access a summary of the key takeaways, a written transcript, an audio replay, and participate in Q&A.

Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

4Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 4th quarter 2017 (4Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter as well as the entire calendar year 2017 (CY17).

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 4Q17. This Excel file contains updated data for 4Q17 and the previous forecast made during 3Q17. Updated forecasts and additional analysis will be published by March 2nd, 2018.

Analysis of the market and its participants during 4Q17 and CY17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

3Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On November 21st, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 3rd quarter 2017 (3Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 3Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 3Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

 

We made minor adjustments to our worldwide 2018 and longer-term forecasts; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

3Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 3rd quarter 2017 (3Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter.

Summary

Global spending on optical network equipment dropped for a third consecutive quarter, led by a larger than normal seasonal decline in China and weakening trends in EMEA.

  • North American spending increased again quarter-over-quarter, with positive results reported by most vendors.  Spending on Metro WDM continues to grow at the expense of LH WDM.
  • EMEA revenue fell sharply though this was the result of weakness at larger vendors – smaller vendors performed better. As in North America, LH WDM bore the brunt of the decline.
  • Last quarter was the weakest YoY revenue growth recorded in China in over 4 years as momentum from 2Q17 spending failed to continue into the third quarter. Spending trends in the region remain difficult to predict.
  • Revenue in the rest of Asia (RoAPAC) eased following breakout results in India during 2Q17 though spending remains at historically high levels.
  • Quarterly coherent 100G+ port shipments broke 100k units for the first time on a global basis. 100G+ Port shipments in China were flat QoQ and are substantially up YoY

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 3Q17. This Excel file contains only historical data, and is an interim release. A file with greater detail, including updated forecasts and additional analysis, will be available by November 27th, 2017.

Analysis of the market and its participants during 3Q17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

Netflix Accelerates Global Video Streaming with Infinera Cloud Xpress 2

Infinera announced that Netflix deployed the Infinera Cloud Xpress 2 to expand their delivery capacity for streaming videos.

“The Infinera Cloud Xpress was the first compact modular data center interconnect (DCI) platform on the market in 2014 and is an amazing technical and commercial success,” said Andrew Schmitt, lead analyst, optical at Cignal AI. “Infinera led the fast-growing compact modular DCI market from its inception – and still does with 38 percent share for the first half of 2017.”

Analysis: 1H17 Cloud and Colo Spending Slowdown

Cignal AI’s recent Optical Customer Markets Report discovered an unexpected weakness in 2017 optical transport equipment spending from cloud & colo operators (see Cignal AI Reports Unexpected Drop in Cloud and Colo Spending). This surprising trend was then further supported by public comments later made by Juniper and Applied Optoelectronics, prompting us to examine the situation in greater detail.

This detailed brief includes:

  • Cloud & colo spending as defined by Cignal AI
  • Analysis of quarterly spending trends by cloud & colo operators
  • Recent shifts in market share among equipment vendors to this market
  • Quantitative analysis of underlying causes of this slowing, including price compression and displacement by IPoDWDM via Inphi, Acacia, and Oclaro components

Requires Optical Customer Markets subscription.

Infinera Sets Two Industry-First Milestones for Optical Transport Technologies

Infinera published two papers at ECOC 2017 that set new milestones in terms of baud rate (100Gbs) and modulation density (1024 QAM). While these technologies are years away from commercial reality and deployment Infinera is demonstrating a continued commitment to the in-house development of photonic integration and the results it believes this can achieve.

“Infinera uniquely uses vertical optical integration to extract maximum performance from the optical transport network,” said Andrew Schmitt, Lead Analyst at Cignal AI. “The new levels of performance in baud rate and modulation schemes for terabit wavelengths exhibited at ECOC are a good example of how this approach can eventually result in production solutions with greater capacity and reach.”

Full company blog on the technology.

1H17 Optical Customer Markets Report

We’ve released the 1H17 edition of the Optical Customer Markets report. It provides insight into how much optical equipment different segments of network operators purchase:

  • Covers 4 global regions and five end customer types
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo (Datacenter), Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Forecasts by region and category
  • Vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo (Datacenter) customers
  • Follows strict methodology to reduce analyst subjectivity

Notable updates include:

  • Updated results for 1H17
  • Vendor market share of equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers for 1H17
  • Updated PowerPoint report summary

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

1H17 Optical Applications Report

Our 1H17 edition of the Optical Hardware Applications report has been released.

The report contains details on the following areas:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G+ Coherent port shipments vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ Coherent and Direct Detect port shipments and forecast
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

This report includes significant updates and enhancements:

  • Initiated a coherent 400G port shipment forecast, estimating demand for 400G wavelengths in CY17 and beyond, including the upcoming 400G ZR pluggable format. The forecast also quantifies the emergence of coherent 100G in volume at the edge of the optical network. A more detailed written analysis sharing the assumptions behind this forecast will be published in the coming weeks. In the meantime, we welcome feedback on the quantitative forecast.
  • Renamed DCI Hardware category to “Compact Modular”. DCI is an application, not a hardware category, and these compact, modular chassis are being used in several applications, including DCI. As Incumbent, Cable MSO, and Wholesale operators evaluate and deploy these systems it is important that this category name better reflect the defining characteristics of these systems. A listing of the specific systems in this category can be found here.
  • Added 1H17 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware. Also updated coherent port shipment market share to include vendor results for 1H17.
  • Compact Modular hardware forecast increased in 2017 and 2018 as result of discussions with vendors. This is a bottoms-up change with the risk that multiple vendors are double-counting the same opportunities.
  • Historical 100G+ Port Shipments adjusted to align with actual customer shipment data.

Current subscribers can download Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

2Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On August 20th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 2nd quarter 2017 (2Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 2Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 2Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

Excel PDF

 

We made substantial adjustments to our worldwide 2017 forecasts due to ongoing spending weakness in North America and EMEA as well as surprising strength in China; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

2Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 2nd quarter 2017 (2Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter.

Summary

Global spending on optical network equipment increased slightly, led by increased spending in China and India.

  • Optical revenue in China is up 13 percent for the first half of 2017 as compared to the same period in 2016. The weak demand reported by component makers is a result of an ongoing inventory correction (primarily at Huawei), rather than a signal of weak end market demand.
  • Huawei and ZTE both reported record shipments of 100G coherent ports in China during the quarter. The companies also showed strong revenue performance in the region.
  • North American spending increased quarter-over-quarter. Consistent with earlier Cignal AI forecasts, North America is experiencing a shift in spending from long haul to metro WDM. Ciena and Cisco are the primary beneficiaries of the double-digit year-over-year growth in NA metro WDM. Both companies grew market share, and Ciena’s North American optical equipment revenue increased by 21 percent year-over-year.
  • Outside of China and Japan, the rest of the Asia Pacific (ROAPAC) countries experienced 20 percent year-over-year growth. This region’s growth was particularly fueled by India’s Reliance Jio, which is purchasing substantial amounts of equipment from Ciena and Nokia as part of an aggressive 4G LTE expansion in the country.
  • EMEA revenue dropped substantially, stemming from sharp declines in spending in the long haul WDM and submarine systems markets. Metro WDM spending remained flat year-over-year.
  • Growth in metro WDM spending is creating greater demand for higher speed coherent ports, which are evolving from 200G to speeds as high as 400G later this year.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 2Q17. This Excel file contains only historical data, and is an interim release. A file with greater detail, including updated forecasts and additional analysis, will be available August 25th, 2017.

Report Details Excel

Analysis of the market and its participants during 2Q17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

Infinera Delivers Industry-leading 19 Terabits of Capacity on Trans-Atlantic Route

Infinera completed a trans-Atlantic field trial with it’s new XTS-3300, slightly edging out the performance of previous announcements by Ciena and Nokia for trans-Atlantic links.

While optical vendors have demonstrated experimental approaches to boost subsea fiber capacity, the Infinera XTS-3300 is the first commercial platform that can deliver over 19T of capacity on a trans-Atlantic route,” said Andrew Schmitt, Lead Analyst at Cignal AI. “The XTS-3300 trial used tighter channel spacing and advanced compensation techniques in the DSP, paving the way for operators to deploy highly efficient platforms that maximize subsea fiber spectrum utilization.

1Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On June 15th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 1st quarter 2017 (1Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 1Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A compilation of our latest analysis is also available in both web format as well as .pdf.

Excel PDF

 

We made some material adjustments to our forecasts for 2017 in North America and China; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.