Nokia

Compact Modular sales (and hence disaggregation) have historically lagged in APAC versus the rest of the world, so APAC’s sudden and extraordinary growth over the past few quarters means that something has changed and deserves a closer look.

4Q20 Compact Modular sales significantly outperformed the overall optical market, as APAC sales more than doubled and surpassed EMEA sales for the first time. 400ZR forecasts for 2022 and beyond were increased based on growing operator interest.

North American Traditional Telco spending on optical and packet hardware declined significantly in the 4th quarter, due to a dramatic reshuffling of capex spurred by the pandemic during the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, APAC Cloud & Colo spending exploded. Long term, hardware sales in all markets are predicted to return to growth in the second half of 2021.

North American optical and packet transport spending plummeted in North America as Tier 1s concentrated COVID-related capex in the first half of the year.

Nokia fared better than its largest competitors in 2020 as it ended the year flat YoY but carrying significant momentum – especially in routing – as it heads into 2021.

This report provides a summary of Cignal AI’s current outlook for the year. Creating forecasts for 2020 was uniquely challenging and forecasting the expected return to normal by the end of 2021 is also very complex.

Compact modular sales grew much faster than the optical market overall, with significant growth in APAC this quarter. 400ZR and ZR+ modules began sampling with several hundred modules shipped for evaluation.

North America transport hardware spending growth shifted dramatically this quarter from Cloud & Colo operators to Incumbents. APAC Cloud & Colo optical sales grew again.

Third quarter results were better than forecast, especially in EMEA where both optical and packet hardware spending increased. North America spending declined while China spending was flat and Japan spending growth continued unabated.

Nokia had an extraordinary Q3, with overall growth significantly higher than the market. Much of this growth came from Q2’s delayed sales.

The diverse requirements of 5G require both the radios and the network supporting the radios to be updated. This report covers advances in 5G packet fronthaul and includes an overview of existing vendor solutions.

Cloud & Colo optical spending in North America cooled while spending in APAC was unexpectedly strong this quarter.

This report includes our initial forecasts of the 100ZR and 400ZR+ markets.. Compact Modular sales grew much faster than the overall market this quarter as disaggregation continues to gain traction in networks outside of Cloud & Colo.

Second quarter results were mixed. Forecasted growth in Q2 from sales pushed out of Q1 did not materialize as anticipated and carriers indicated that annual CapEx will not be increased – suggesting a flat to down second half of the year.

Nokia reported rising demand from customers but a continued COVID impact on the supply chain, resulting in a down quarter in almost every region and product segment.

Our 3Q18 report showed coherent optical port pricing dropping at 26% per year. This report examines the stability of that trend over the last 12 months as new coherent systems entered the market.

Packet-OTN sales doubled in NA as carriers responded to COVID-19, and shipments of 400Gbps+ ports doubled YoY as Chinese equipment companies entered production.

North American Incumbent optical spending was up almost 50% YoY while Wholesale, Cable/MSO, and Cloud spending all declined this quarter.

Vendors generally claimed a 5-10% reduction in sales due to COVID-19 operational issues this quarter. While demand increased, the inability to get parts, manufacture equipment, and deliver to end customers reduced sales in all areas.

Overview and analysis of Nokia’s fifth generation of coherent DSPs, the PSE-Vs, and PSE-Vc.