Nokia

Learn How High-Performance Coherent Pluggables Can Address a Broad Set of Network Applications

The historical classification of coherent optical technology (Gen1, Gen2, etc.) is no longer sufficient. Therefore, Cignal AI will now recognize and classify coherent DSP technology by its maximum baud rate and whether the DSP is optimized for Performance or Compact applications.

Compact modular sales again outperformed the overall optical hardware market while Packet-OTN sales declined. 400ZR is shipping but is supply limited.

Development moves past 90+ GBaud directly to 120+

Optical spending by North American Traditional Telco carriers declined YoY; Cloud & Colo optical spending worldwide slowed as NA spending stalled.

First-quarter 2021 worldwide optical hardware spending was down slightly YoY, Chinese optical hardware spending was down significantly.

Consistent worldwide results and a new effort to close the coherent gap with DCOs.

Nearly 5 years after the project’s inception, AT&T disclosed it has deployed OpenROADM-based networks across a dozen US metros.

After years of anticipation, 400G pluggable digital coherent optics (DCO) will finally achieve general availability and initial deployment in 2021.

400Gbps+ port shipments doubled YoY, 400ZR ports started to ship, and compact modular sales significantly outperformed the overall optical hardware market this quarter.

Cignal AI continues to track announcements of 5th generation (800Gbps-capable, 90+ GBaud) optical trials and deployments.

Optical spending by North American Traditional Telco carriers declined steeply YoY compared to a heavily frontloaded 1Q20, but show signs of longer term recovery. Cloud & Colo optical spending worldwide slowed as NA spending stalled in 2020 and APAC is just beginning to take off.

First quarter optical spending was down compared to the Covid-impacted 1Q20. Packet transport sales, which suffered a year ago from operational issues, increased sharply.

Exceptional optical and packet hardware sales. Significant wins, despite delays in next generation coherent optical technology, will provide momentum for the year.

Compact Modular sales (and hence disaggregation) have historically lagged in APAC versus the rest of the world, so APAC’s sudden and extraordinary growth over the past few quarters means that something has changed and deserves a closer look.

4Q20 Compact Modular sales significantly outperformed the overall optical market, as APAC sales more than doubled and surpassed EMEA sales for the first time. 400ZR forecasts for 2022 and beyond were increased based on growing operator interest.

North American Traditional Telco spending on optical and packet hardware declined significantly in the 4th quarter, due to a dramatic reshuffling of capex spurred by the pandemic during the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, APAC Cloud & Colo spending exploded. Long term, hardware sales in all markets are predicted to return to growth in the second half of 2021.

North American optical and packet transport spending plummeted in North America as Tier 1s concentrated COVID-related capex in the first half of the year.

Nokia fared better than its largest competitors in 2020 as it ended the year flat YoY but carrying significant momentum – especially in routing – as it heads into 2021.

This report provides a summary of Cignal AI’s current outlook for the year. Creating forecasts for 2020 was uniquely challenging and forecasting the expected return to normal by the end of 2021 is also very complex.