Cisco

Cignal AI continues to track announcements of 5th generation (800Gbps-capable, 90+ GBaud) optical trials and deployments.

Optical spending by North American Traditional Telco carriers declined steeply YoY compared to a heavily frontloaded 1Q20, but show signs of longer term recovery. Cloud & Colo optical spending worldwide slowed as NA spending stalled in 2020 and APAC is just beginning to take off.

In conjunction with OFC, Cisco published a note quantifying the total volume of coherent ports shipped with Acacia and Cisco technologies combined.

First quarter optical spending was down compared to the Covid-impacted 1Q20. Packet transport sales, which suffered a year ago from operational issues, increased sharply.

Compact Modular sales (and hence disaggregation) have historically lagged in APAC versus the rest of the world, so APAC’s sudden and extraordinary growth over the past few quarters means that something has changed and deserves a closer look.

4Q20 Compact Modular sales significantly outperformed the overall optical market, as APAC sales more than doubled and surpassed EMEA sales for the first time. 400ZR forecasts for 2022 and beyond were increased based on growing operator interest.

North American Traditional Telco spending on optical and packet hardware declined significantly in the 4th quarter, due to a dramatic reshuffling of capex spurred by the pandemic during the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, APAC Cloud & Colo spending exploded. Long term, hardware sales in all markets are predicted to return to growth in the second half of 2021.

North American optical and packet transport spending plummeted in North America as Tier 1s concentrated COVID-related capex in the first half of the year.

Windstream announced it performed a field trial of Acacia 400ZR+ modules in Cisco compact modular equipment. This is a notable event because it is the first public trial of extended reach 4th gen pluggable coherent 400ZR+ modules and the first demonstration of 400ZR+ modules using the larger CFP2 format.

Cisco’s transport product line had a tough 2020 as the company introduced new products in the middle of a pandemic. Sales also declined sharply in Q4, reflecting a slowdown in the NA market.

This report provides a summary of Cignal AI’s current outlook for the year. Creating forecasts for 2020 was uniquely challenging and forecasting the expected return to normal by the end of 2021 is also very complex.

Lightreading covered an announcement by Telia Carrier that it was one of the first major network operators to use pluggable 400ZR and OpenZR+ coherent modules.

Compact modular sales grew much faster than the optical market overall, with significant growth in APAC this quarter. 400ZR and ZR+ modules began sampling with several hundred modules shipped for evaluation.

North America transport hardware spending growth shifted dramatically this quarter from Cloud & Colo operators to Incumbents. APAC Cloud & Colo optical sales grew again.

Third quarter results were better than forecast, especially in EMEA where both optical and packet hardware spending increased. North America spending declined while China spending was flat and Japan spending growth continued unabated.

Cisco’s results and forecast this quarter were more optimistic than last quarter. Optical and packet sales slowed, but an uptick at the end of the quarter hinted at a better than expected finish for the year.

The diverse requirements of 5G require both the radios and the network supporting the radios to be updated. This report covers advances in 5G packet fronthaul and includes an overview of existing vendor solutions.

Cloud & Colo optical spending in North America cooled while spending in APAC was unexpectedly strong this quarter.

This report includes our initial forecasts of the 100ZR and 400ZR+ markets.. Compact Modular sales grew much faster than the overall market this quarter as disaggregation continues to gain traction in networks outside of Cloud & Colo.

Second quarter results were mixed. Forecasted growth in Q2 from sales pushed out of Q1 did not materialize as anticipated and carriers indicated that annual CapEx will not be increased – suggesting a flat to down second half of the year.