3Q18 Optical Hardware Tracker

The Cignal AI 3rd quarter 2018 (3Q18) Optical Hardware market share tracker is now active. The tracker allows clients to download a real-time view of company results as they are released. Updates are made continuously and are reflected in the tracking table below.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an Excel file with actual results reported-to-date through 3Q18. This Excel file contains reported vendor data for 3Q18 and the forecast from the 2Q18 report. A final report with all vendors and updated forecasts will be published by November 21st, 2018.

Report Details Excel

 

Adtran
ADVA
Ciena
Ekinops
Fujitsu
Huawei
Infinera
Juniper
Padtec
TE Conn
Tejas
Xtera
ZTE
Coriant
ECI
Fiberhome
Nokia
Cisco
Mitsubishi
NEC

Requires Optical Hardware subscription

2018 SCTE Cable-Tec Expo: Key Optical Topics

The SCTE Cable-Tec Expo is the premiere technical trade show for North American Cable MSOs and has historically been oriented towards software (encoding, menu providers), analog hardware, outside plant, and HFC-specific equipment. Some optical companies have usually attended the show, as the MSO optical core is similar to any other metro DWDM core, but this year a greater number of prominent companies joined in. Vendors with optical equipment in their booths included Ciena, Infinera, Fujitsu Network Communications, Nokia, and ADVA, while switch/router companies such as Cisco, Juniper, and Arista were all talking about optics as part of their pitch. Even optical component companies like Finisar, Sumitomo, Menara, and Qorvo had spots on the show floor, and many of the optical booth technology experts noted that this was their first Cable-Tec expo.

Cignal AI’s 2Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report (press release) indicated that the MSO market for optical equipment in North America continues to be strong, with over 20% year-over-year spending increase. The market’s upswing is further reinforced by the burgeoning interest optical equipment and component companies had in participating in the show.

The SCTE Cable-Tec Expo highlighted the following factors driving the optical MSO market:

  • Fiber Deep
  • Native Optics
  • 5G
  • Virtualization
PDF

Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

2Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report

Cignal AI has issued the 2Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report. Updates include:

  • Added 2Q18 optical sales for the five tracked customer verticals, allowing clients to see total purchases of optical equipment by customer market.
  • Updated 2Q18 market share for vendor sales to cloud and colo operators which benchmarks the magnitude of business each company does these operators.
  • Added tables and chart of rolling 4 quarter market share of cloud and colo to better highlight longer-term vendor strengths in this sector.

The Optical Customer Markets Report examines the following:

  • Optical shipments to five end customer types across four global regions
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo, Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Detailed vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • Forecasts by region and customer type

Significant statistics reported this quarter include:

  • Record cloud and colo spending reported in 2Q; now a significant share of spending in North America
  • Incumbent spending in China is equal to all other incumbent spending worldwide combined
  • Cable MSO spending in North America continues to be strong

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

Requires Optical Customer Markets subscription

2Q18 Optical Applications Report

Cignal AI’s 2Q18 Optical Hardware Applications Report has been issued.

The new report has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Implemented rolling 12-month average data, allowing clients to see better see long-term market share and trends absent of seasonality effects.
  • Added 2Q18 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware as well as 2Q18 100G+ port shipments.
  • Adjusted 100G+ port forecasts for 2018.

Current Optical Applications Report subscribers can download updated Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

 

Further detail on the changes and updates to Cignal AI’s Optical Applications Report are below:

Requires Optical Hardware Applications subscription

2Q18 Optical Hardware Report

This report finalizes our full optical equipment market share analysis and includes updated forecasts for the industry through 2022. It is released once results for the current quarter (2Q18) are complete. Clients have been able to see company results as they were released during the quarter via the Optical Hardware Tracker, a service unique to Cignal AI.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report can download an excel file with actual results through 2Q18 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete .pdf document of this report is also available.

Excel PDF Detailed analysis of the market and its participants during 2Q18 follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription

2Q18 Optical Hardware Tracker

The Cignal AI 2nd quarter 2018 (2Q18) Optical Hardware market share tracker is now complete. This tracker allows clients to download a real-time view of industry results as companies report. Updates are made continuously and are reflected in the tracking table below.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results reported-to-date through 2Q18. This Excel file contains reported vendor data for 2Q18 and the previous forecast made during 1Q17. A complete report with all vendors and updated forecasts will be published by August 25th, 2018.

Report Details Excel

 

Adtran
ADVA
Ciena
Cisco
Coriant
ECI
Ekinops
Fujitsu
Huawei
Infinera
Mitsubishi
NEC
Nokia
Padtec
TE Conn
Xtera
ZTE
Fiberhome
Juniper

Requires Optical Hardware subscription

Cloud Spending on Optical Hardware – 1Q18 Update

In October 2017,  Cignal AI analyzed the occurrence of a slowdown in spending by cloud & colo operators and quantified the magnitude of its impact (see Analysis: 1H17 Cloud and Colo Spending Slowdown).

The report conclusions contradicted the common but inaccurate perception that spending by cloud operators such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft on optical transport equipment was growing at a rapid rate.

This report has been enhanced with new analysis and updated vendor shipment data from 3Q17, 4Q17, and 1Q18 from equipment and component vendors.

This update includes:

  • A summary of cloud & colo spending definitions
  • Fresh analysis of changes in quarterly spending trends by cloud & colo operators through 1Q18
  • Recent shifts in market share among optical equipment vendors to this customer market
  • Quantitative analysis of underlying causes of flat spending, including continued price compression through 2018 and displacement by IPoDWDM via Inphi, Acacia, and Oclaro components.

Download PDF of This Article

PDF

Requires Optical Customer Markets subscription

1Q18 Optical Applications Report

Cignal AI’s 1Q18 Optical Hardware Applications Report has been issued. Its arrival marks the first quarterly release of this report, which will now be standard practice; previously the report was published every six months.

The new report has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Added 200G and 400G+ vendor market share, allowing clients to see total port shipments by vendor along with details by port speed.
  • Added 1Q18 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware as well as 1Q18 100G+ port shipments.
  • Adjusted Compact Modular and Packet-OTN forecasts. There have been some shifts in how both of these markets will develop.

The 1Q18 Optical Applications Report examines the following:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G, 200G, 400G coherent port shipments & vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent, 400G ZR and direct detect port forecasts
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

Current Optical Applications Report subscribers can download updated Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

 

Further detail on the changes and updates to Cignal AI’s Optical Applications Report are below:

Requires Optical Hardware Applications subscription

1Q18 Optical Hardware Report

This report finalizes our full optical equipment market share analysis and has updated forecasts for the industry through 2022. It is released once results for the current quarter (1Q18) are complete, as tabulated in our Optical Hardware Tracker.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report can download an excel file with actual results through 1Q18 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete .pdf document of this report is also available.

 

Detailed analysis of the market and its participants during 1Q18 follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription

1Q18 Optical Hardware Tracker

The Cignal AI 1st quarter 2018 (1Q18) Optical Hardware market share tracker is active. This tracker allows clients to download a real-time view of industry results as companies report results. Updates are made continuously and are reflected in the tracking table below.

Results for the quarter are complete.
Continue Reading

OFC 2018 – Compact Modular Equipment

Compact Modular Equipment took center stage at OFC 2018. News included speed upgrades to existing systems, the emergence of new switch/router variants, and open line systems designed to address the growing interest in optical hardware disaggregation.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

4Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On February 14th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 4th quarter 2017 (4Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2022.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 4Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 4Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

 

We extended our forecasts for revenue and ports to 2022, and made minor adjustments to our worldwide 2019 and longer-term forecasts; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription

4Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 4th quarter 2017 (4Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter as well as the entire calendar year 2017 (CY17).

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 4Q17. This Excel file contains updated data for 4Q17 and the previous forecast made during 3Q17. Updated forecasts and additional analysis will be published by March 2nd, 2018.

Analysis of the market and its participants during 4Q17 and CY17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription

3Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On November 21st, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 3rd quarter 2017 (3Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 3Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 3Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

 

We made minor adjustments to our worldwide 2018 and longer-term forecasts; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription

3Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 3rd quarter 2017 (3Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter.

Summary

Global spending on optical network equipment dropped for a third consecutive quarter, led by a larger than normal seasonal decline in China and weakening trends in EMEA.

  • North American spending increased again quarter-over-quarter, with positive results reported by most vendors.  Spending on Metro WDM continues to grow at the expense of LH WDM.
  • EMEA revenue fell sharply though this was the result of weakness at larger vendors – smaller vendors performed better. As in North America, LH WDM bore the brunt of the decline.
  • Last quarter was the weakest YoY revenue growth recorded in China in over 4 years as momentum from 2Q17 spending failed to continue into the third quarter. Spending trends in the region remain difficult to predict.
  • Revenue in the rest of Asia (RoAPAC) eased following breakout results in India during 2Q17 though spending remains at historically high levels.
  • Quarterly coherent 100G+ port shipments broke 100k units for the first time on a global basis. 100G+ Port shipments in China were flat QoQ and are substantially up YoY

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 3Q17. This Excel file contains only historical data, and is an interim release. A file with greater detail, including updated forecasts and additional analysis, will be available by November 27th, 2017.

Analysis of the market and its participants during 3Q17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription

Analysis: 1H17 Cloud and Colo Spending Slowdown

Compact Modular Hardware Introduction Timeline

Cignal AI’s recent Optical Customer Markets Report discovered an unexpected weakness in 2017 optical transport equipment spending from cloud & colo operators (see Cignal AI Reports Unexpected Drop in Cloud and Colo Spending). This surprising trend was then further supported by public comments later made by Juniper and Applied Optoelectronics, prompting us to examine the situation in greater detail.

This detailed brief includes:

  • Cloud & colo spending as defined by Cignal AI
  • Analysis of quarterly spending trends by cloud & colo operators
  • Recent shifts in market share among equipment vendors to this market
  • Quantitative analysis of underlying causes of this slowing, including price compression and displacement by IPoDWDM via Inphi, Acacia, and Oclaro components

Requires Optical Customer Markets subscription