ADVA

Compact Modular equipment sales continued to surge while Chinese coherent port shipments stalled.

Optical forecasts were reduced by $1.1B worldwide in 2025 due to a shift of coherent optics into router-based DCO’s.

Compact modular sales again outperformed the overall optical hardware market while Packet-OTN sales declined. 400ZR is shipping but is supply limited.

Optical spending by North American Traditional Telco carriers declined YoY; Cloud & Colo optical spending worldwide slowed as NA spending stalled.

Mentioned: ADTRAN and ADVA have announced a merger

First-quarter 2021 worldwide optical hardware spending was down slightly YoY, Chinese optical hardware spending was down significantly.

Record Q2 profitability – Sales hit by 10% due to supply chain issues – EMEA continues to rebound

400Gbps+ port shipments doubled YoY, 400ZR ports started to ship, and compact modular sales significantly outperformed the overall optical hardware market this quarter.

Several vendors are shipping 800Gbps capable coherent optical solutions, and now the industry must consider the next steps in development.

Cignal AI continues to track announcements of 5th generation (800Gbps-capable, 90+ GBaud) optical trials and deployments.

Optical spending by North American Traditional Telco carriers declined steeply YoY compared to a heavily frontloaded 1Q20, but show signs of longer term recovery. Cloud & Colo optical spending worldwide slowed as NA spending stalled in 2020 and APAC is just beginning to take off.

First quarter optical spending was down compared to the Covid-impacted 1Q20. Packet transport sales, which suffered a year ago from operational issues, increased sharply.

Record Revenue and Orders – North America Rebound Coming – Components Become 10% of Business During Next Three Years

Compact Modular sales (and hence disaggregation) have historically lagged in APAC versus the rest of the world, so APAC’s sudden and extraordinary growth over the past few quarters means that something has changed and deserves a closer look.

4Q20 Compact Modular sales significantly outperformed the overall optical market, as APAC sales more than doubled and surpassed EMEA sales for the first time. 400ZR forecasts for 2022 and beyond were increased based on growing operator interest.

North American Traditional Telco spending on optical and packet hardware declined significantly in the 4th quarter, due to a dramatic reshuffling of capex spurred by the pandemic during the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, APAC Cloud & Colo spending exploded. Long term, hardware sales in all markets are predicted to return to growth in the second half of 2021.

North American optical and packet transport spending plummeted in North America as Tier 1s concentrated COVID-related capex in the first half of the year.

This report provides a summary of Cignal AI’s current outlook for the year. Creating forecasts for 2020 was uniquely challenging and forecasting the expected return to normal by the end of 2021 is also very complex.

Compact modular sales grew much faster than the optical market overall, with significant growth in APAC this quarter. 400ZR and ZR+ modules began sampling with several hundred modules shipped for evaluation.

North America transport hardware spending growth shifted dramatically this quarter from Cloud & Colo operators to Incumbents. APAC Cloud & Colo optical sales grew again.