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First quarter optical spending was down compared to the Covid-impacted 1Q20. Packet transport sales, which suffered a year ago from operational issues, increased sharply.

Infinera provided new details on ICE6, XR Optics, Groove Compact Modular, and opportunities to displace Huawei.

Exceptional optical and packet hardware sales. Significant wins, despite delays in next generation coherent optical technology, will provide momentum for the year.

ICE6 is shipping to customers, while 600Gbps port shipments grow and support for 400Gbps pluggable optics is added to existing systems.

TeliaCarrier’s plans for deploying 400ZR and growing its network post-COVID

Record Revenue and Orders – North America Rebound Coming – Components Become 10% of Business During Next Three Years

Chinese webscale operator Tencent has been developing its own white box for optical transport. In this report we provide more details of Tencent’s work, including its adoption of CFP2 400Gbps optics.

Compact Modular sales (and hence disaggregation) have historically lagged in APAC versus the rest of the world, so APAC’s sudden and extraordinary growth over the past few quarters means that something has changed and deserves a closer look.

4Q20 Compact Modular sales significantly outperformed the overall optical market, as APAC sales more than doubled and surpassed EMEA sales for the first time. 400ZR forecasts for 2022 and beyond were increased based on growing operator interest.

Ciena’s revenue decline this quarter was steeper than our forecast, but the company is poised to grow revenues based on the success of its WaveLogic 5e 5th generation coherent technology.

North American Traditional Telco spending on optical and packet hardware declined significantly in the 4th quarter, due to a dramatic reshuffling of capex spurred by the pandemic during the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, APAC Cloud & Colo spending exploded. Long term, hardware sales in all markets are predicted to return to growth in the second half of 2021.

North American optical and packet transport spending plummeted in North America as Tier 1s concentrated COVID-related capex in the first half of the year.

Infinera originally expected its ICE6 technology to enter the market in the second half of 2020. The company’s current guidance now indicates a 2H21 arrival. Infinera reports a strong order pipeline but has not specified exactly when the first ICE6 will ship for revenue.

Windstream announced it performed a field trial of Acacia 400ZR+ modules in Cisco compact modular equipment. This is a notable event because it is the first public trial of extended reach 4th gen pluggable coherent 400ZR+ modules and the first demonstration of 400ZR+ modules using the larger CFP2 format.

Nokia fared better than its largest competitors in 2020 as it ended the year flat YoY but carrying significant momentum – especially in routing – as it heads into 2021.

Juniper exceeded expectations in 2020, a notable feat as the overall market was difficult for switching and routing. Much of the company’s success comes from its recently diversified customer base away from Tier 1 concentration.

Cisco’s transport product line had a tough 2020 as the company introduced new products in the middle of a pandemic. Sales also declined sharply in Q4, reflecting a slowdown in the NA market.

Fujitsu’s revenues shifted from NA to Japan in 2020 as legacy platform revenue has declined. However, the company’s compact modular strategy is taking off in Japan and will grow in NA in 2021.

This report provides a summary of Cignal AI’s current outlook for the year. Creating forecasts for 2020 was uniquely challenging and forecasting the expected return to normal by the end of 2021 is also very complex.

Ciena’s sales declined last quarter, primarily due to weakness in NA optical sales. Gen5 coherent (800Gbps-capable) port shipments topped 3600 shipped to date.