Optical Components Forecast Update 4Q25

Cignal AI’s fourth quarter Optical Components Reports are typically on a delayed schedule due to late annual reporting from Chinese component companies. The final 4Q25 Optical Components Report should arrive in April. In the meantime, we have updated the Live Excel version of the Optical Components Report with revenue numbers from non-Chinese companies that have been received to date. Of particular interest, the forecast for 2026 and beyond has been updated based on recent increases in guidance from hyperscalers.

While the interim Live Excel forecasts will change when the final report is issued, any changes are expected to be minor.

Highlights of the forecast include:

• The addition of 2030 forecasts in all categories
• A significant increase in the Datacom Optical Component Revenue forecast
• A similar increase in the Datacom Optical Component Modules unit shipment forecast, especially at 800GbE
• No changes to the Telecom Optical Component Revenue forecast and only minor changes to the Telecom Optical Component forecast, focused on 1600ZRx in later years

Revenue Forecast Updates

As described in Cignal AI’s 4Q25 update on hyperscale Capex, Hyperscale Capex: Win or Go Home, consensus forecasts for hyperscale spending have increased significantly over the last three weeks, and Capex is no longer reasonably forecastable in the long term. However, we have developed a Capex model based on consensus reporting and our own analysis, and that model informs our Datacom revenue forecast.