Introduction
This 4Q25 report is a continuation of and update to Cignal AI’s previous OCS reports. Since the report’s last publication in January 2025, and the webinar Optical Circuit Switching for AI Scaling and Datacenter Automation in July 2025, the OCS forecast has been updated based on newer information, new applications have been added, and the latest details on products have been included.
Key Takeaways:
- The total market for OCSs will reach, conservatively, $2.5 billion by 2029.
- The number of applications within the datacenter that can use OCSs is expanding as operators gain familiarity with OCS capabilities and have increased confidence in the supply chain. The original Google applications (spine layer replacement and AI cluster reconfiguration) remain the largest by scale, but operators are investigating many others – including scale-up – that could rival those in market size long term.
- There are currently multiple approaches to OCS technology, including MEMS, liquid crystal, piezoelectric, robotic, and silicon photonics. Each one has a different set of capabilities, and there are optimal applications for each inside the datacenter.
- Reliability is the key characteristic of an OCS inside the datacenter, especially for AI applications for which even transitory failures can cause massive disruptions. The value of other features (radix, speed, loss) varies by application.
- OCS deployment will impact datacom transceiver requirements. Most notably, FR optics (which use a single fiber) will dominate over DR optics (which use multiple fibers). Also, customizations like higher power optics and circulators for bi-directional operation will be more common. At least through 1.6TbE optics, coherent light will not be a requirement for OCS operation.
- The number of OCS vendors continues to expand. This report includes 20 vendors, and more are expected to emerge from labs and startup incubators over the next year.
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Changes from the Previous OCS report:
- Historical spending and forecast market size have each increased by 50-60% based on information from suppliers of OCSs and components.
- Vendor descriptions have been updated with the latest product information.
- New vendor Triple-Stone and several startups have been added.
- New applications are included, such as Multi-Layer Resiliency and Mixed Network Bypass
Table of Contents
- The Definition of an Optical Circuit Switch
- OCS Key Characteristics
- Reliability
- Radix
- Loss
- Speed
- Datacenter Applications for OCSs
- Spine Layer Replacement (aka Restriping)
- AI Cluster Reconfiguration
- Multi-Layer Resiliency
- Mixed Network Bypass
- Pooled Resources / Datacenter Disaggregation
- AI Back-End Networks
- Virtual Meet-Me Rooms
- Campus Datacenter Interconnect
- Telecom Applications
- OCS Technologies
- MEMS-Based Switches
- Liquid Crystal-Based Switches
- Robotic Switches
- Piezoelectric Switches
- Silicon Photonics
- Datacom Transceiver Impact
- Higher Optical Power
- Bi-Directionality
- Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM)
- PAM-4 Sync Acceleration
- Vendor Analysis
- Coherent
- Lumentum
- Huber+Suhner
- Telescent
- iPronics
- DiCon Fiberoptics
- Triple-Stone
- nEye
- Calient
- Drut
- Others
- OCS Market Size
- AI Cluster Reconfiguration
- Spine Layer Replacement
- AI Scale Up Networks
- Other Applications
- Revenue Summary
- Summary
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