Modern Market Research for Networking Communications

Cignal AI provides active and insightful market research for the networking component and equipment market as well as its end customers.

Services

Cignal AI provides reporting on Optical and Packet Transport Hardware, Applications, and Customer Markets on a quarterly and annual subscription basis. Cignal AI clients subscribed to one or more of our market reports receive Active Insight news service as a benefit, free of charge, during their subscription term.

HardwareApplicationsCustomer MarketsActive InsightReal-Time Updates

Tracks the vendors that sell optical and/or packet transport hardware and provides detailed market share, forecasts, and vendor profile reports across 6 global regions and 8 product categories

  • Ciena 2Q20 Vendor Summary Report
    Ciena expects to generate revenue growth of 2-4% in a flat (ex-China) market in 2020, implying declines YoY for optical sales in the second half of the year.
  • 1Q20 Transport Hardware Report
    Vendors generally claimed a 5-10% reduction in sales due to COVID-19 operational issues this quarter. While demand increased, the inability to get parts, manufacture equipment, and deliver to end customers reduced sales in all areas.
  • Network Operators Accelerate Capex in Response to COVID-19
    The effects of COVID-19 simultaneously catalyzed demand for transport equipment and paralyzed supply chains worldwide during the first quarter of 2020.
  • Infinera 1Q20 Vendor Summary Report
    On the Q1 earnings call, Infinera CEO Tom Fallon emphasized that margins were “compressed” by the inability to ship higher-margin new technology to offset of the lower-margin 200Gbps optics.

Analyzes rapidly changing transport market segments that address specific functions or customer applications

  • 1Q20 Transport Applications Report
    Packet-OTN sales doubled in NA as carriers responded to COVID-19, and shipments of 400Gbps+ ports doubled YoY as Chinese equipment companies entered production.
  • 4Q19 Transport Applications Report
    Compact Modular sales growth slowed in North America in the 4th quarter, but sales growth outside of NA was exceptionally strong and total worldwide sales grew nearly 50% year-over-year.
  • 3Q19 Optical Applications Report
    200G coherent shipments from China exceeded forecasts, worldwide shipments of 100G coherent ports will now decline until lower-cost alternatives emerge.
  • 2Q19 Optical Applications Report
    Over a quarter of North American compact modular sales were for long haul deployments as applications continue to expand.

Tabulates transport equipment purchased by operators representing several customer verticals

  • 1Q20 Transport Customer Markets Report
    North American Incumbent optical spending was up almost 50% YoY while Wholesale, Cable/MSO, and Cloud spending all declined this quarter.
  • 4Q19 Transport Customer Markets Report
    Cloud & Colo optical spending growth cooled in the 4th quarter but still led growth for the year with Ciena as market share leader. North American Incumbent and Cable/MSO optical spending came back strong in the 4th quarter.
  • 3Q19 Optical Customer Markets Report
    Cloud & Colo led growth in North America, up 45% this quarter. Ciena increased its market share to over 50% in 3Q19.
  • 2Q19 Optical Customer Markets Report
    Incumbent spending grew in every region, Cloud & Colo spending growth slowed, and Cable & MSO sales declined.

Cignal AI’s news service, delivering articles and analysis on important optical market events and items of interest as they occur

  • Nokia PSE-V Coherent Chipset
    Overview and analysis of Nokia’s fifth generation of coherent DSPs, the PSE-Vs, and PSE-Vc.
  • Acacia 1Q20 Vendor Summary Report
    Acacia’s results are a bellwether to the industry. This report looks at the most recent results for the company and examines them in the context of historical trends.
  • COVID-19 Impact – 2020 Forecast Update
    Cignal AI updated the 2020 optical and packet transport hardware forecast with our best estimates of the impact of COVID-19.
  • OFC2020 Optical Hardware Review
    Major optical transport equipment vendors did not present at OFC in March due to COVID-19 concerns, but that did not stop announcements of products and online updates to customers and analysts.

Events in May–July 2020

  • May 1, 2020 - Ekinops*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Ekinops~1Q20
    Ekinops has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 01

    Ekinops is complete for the quarter.

  • May 5, 2020 - Ericsson*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Ericsson~1Q20
    Ericsson has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 05

    Ericsson is complete for the quarter.

  • May 6, 2020 - ADVA*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~ADVA~1Q20
    ADVA has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 06

    ADVA is complete for the quarter.

  • May 8, 2020 - ADTRAN*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Adtran~1Q20
    Adtran has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 08

    ADTRAN is complete for the quarter.

  • May 11, 2020 - Nokia*has*adjusted*customer*revenue*splits*for*2019.*As*a*result, *incumbent*revenue*has*been*increased*and*cloud*revenue*has*been*decreased *slightly*for*Nokia*in*Q1*through*Q4*of*2019.~Nokia~1Q20, Juniper*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Juniper*Networks~1Q20
    Nokia has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 11

    Nokia has adjusted customer revenue splits for 2019. As a result, incumbent revenue has been increased and cloud revenue has been decreased slightly for Nokia in Q1 through Q4 of 2019.

    Juniper Networks has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 11

    Juniper is complete for the quarter.

  • May 12, 2020 - NEC*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~NEC~1Q20, Infinera*total*numbers*are*correct*but*regional*and*customer*split s*are*estimated*at*this*time.~Infinera~1Q20
    NEC has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 12

    NEC is complete for the quarter.

    Infinera has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 12

    Infinera total numbers are correct but regional and customer splits are estimated at this time.

  • May 13, 2020 - ECI*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~ECI~1Q20, Ciena*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Ciena~1Q20
    ECI has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 13

    ECI is complete for the quarter.

    Ciena has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 13

    Ciena is complete for the quarter.

  • May 15, 2020 - Cisco*total*numbers*are*correct*but*regional*and*customer*splits*a re*estimated*at*this*time.~Cisco~1Q20, Infinera*is*complete*for*the*quarter.*Infinera*has*re-stated*the*L H/SLTE*split*for*2019,*resulting*in*movement*of*approximately*$25*from*LH *to*SLTE*sales*for*the*year.~Infinera~1Q20, Alaxala*is*now*added*to*reports*including*historical*data*for*2018 *and*2019.*Alaxala*sales*impact*packet*totals*and*market*share*in*Japan.~A laxala~1Q20
    Cisco has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 15

    Cisco total numbers are correct but regional and customer splits are estimated at this time.

    Infinera has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 15

    Infinera is complete for the quarter. Infinera has re-stated the LH/SLTE split for 2019, resulting in movement of approximately $25 from LH to SLTE sales for the year.

    Alaxala has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 15

    Alaxala is now added to reports including historical data for 2018 and 2019. Alaxala sales impact packet totals and market share in Japan.

  • May 18, 2020 - Fujitsu*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Fujitsu~1Q20
    Fujitsu has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 18

    Fujitsu is complete for the quarter.

  • May 20, 2020 - ZTE*total*numbers*are*correct*but*regional*and*customer*splits*are *estimated*at*this*time.~ZTE~1Q20, Padtec*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Padtec~1Q20
    ZTE has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 20

    ZTE total numbers are correct but regional and customer splits are estimated at this time.

    Padtec has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 20

    Padtec is complete for the quarter.

  • May 21, 2020 - ZTE*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~ZTE~1Q20, Mitsubishi*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Mitsubishi*Electric~1Q20, Nokia*terrestrial*numbers*are*complete*for*the*quarter.*SLTE*numbe rs*are*estimated*at*this*time.~Nokia~1Q20, Cisco*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Cisco~1Q20
    ZTE has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 21

    ZTE is complete for the quarter.

    Mitsubishi Electric has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 21

    Mitsubishi is complete for the quarter.

    Nokia has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 21

    Nokia terrestrial numbers are complete for the quarter. SLTE numbers are estimated at this time.

    Cisco has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 21

    Cisco is complete for the quarter.

  • May 27, 2020 - Fiberhome*results*are*estimated*for*this*quarter.~Fiberhome~1Q20, Huawei*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Huawei~1Q20
    Fiberhome has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 27

    Fiberhome results are estimated for this quarter.

    Huawei has updated their 1Q20 earningsMay 27

    Huawei is complete for the quarter.

  • June 3, 2020 - Nokia*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Nokia~1Q20
    Nokia has updated their 1Q20 earningsJun 03

    Nokia is complete for the quarter.

  • June 10, 2020 - Ciena*total*numbers*are*correct*but*regional*and*customer*splits*a re*estimated*at*this*time.~Ciena~2Q20
    Ciena has updated their 2Q20 earningsJun 10

    Ciena total numbers are correct but regional and customer splits are estimated at this time.

  • June 15, 2020 - Ciena*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Ciena~2Q20
    Ciena has updated their 2Q20 earningsJun 15

    Ciena is complete for the quarter.

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Recent Publications

Network Operators Accelerate Capex in Response to COVID-19 May 29

The effects of COVID-19 simultaneously catalyzed demand for transport equipment and paralyzed supply chains worldwide during the first quarter of 2020.

Read More

Press Releases, Transport Hardware
Nokia PSE-V Coherent Chipset May 21

Overview and analysis of Nokia’s fifth generation of coherent DSPs, the PSE-Vs, and PSE-Vc.

Read More

Active Insight, Free, Latest
Nokia launches WaveFabric Elements optical portfolio for 400G ecosystem May 21

Nokia launched it’s 5th generation coherent solution. This includes new PSE-5 DSPs, new CSTAR silicon photonics from its Elenion acquisition, and pluggable CFP2-DCO and QSFP-288DD pluggable modules.

Read More

Mentions
OIF Publishes Implementation Agreement for 400ZR Apr 29

The OIF announced that the official release of the 400ZR implementation agreement is now available for download.

Read More

Mentions
COVID-19 Impact – 2020 Forecast Update Apr 24

Cignal AI updated the 2020 optical and packet transport hardware forecast with our best estimates of the impact of COVID-19.

Read More

Active Insight, Free, Latest
Infinera Unveils More Compact Modular Optical Transport Solutions Apr 1

Infinera announced new versions of the Groove chassis to support 5th generation coherent ICE6 optics and provide feature enhancements to better address applications outside of cloud and colo operators.

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Mentions
North American Optical Sales Rebound In 2019 Mar 10

Recent optical sales in North America were encouraging – up more than 25% for 4Q19 and 10% for all of 2019 according to the most recent Transport Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI.

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Press Releases
Acacia Builds Upon Coherent Pluggable Leadership with 400G Portfolio Mar 5

Acacia announced a new family of 400G coherent pluggable optics for 400ZR/Open ROADM applications based on the new 7nm Greylock DSP.

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Mentions
OFC 2020 Preview and Predictions Feb 24

The Optical Fiber Communications Conference is the most significant industry trade and technical show for optical communications. In preparation for the event, Cignal AI has compiled a list of what to watch at OFC and what announcements to expect.

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Active Insight, Free, Latest
Is 2020 the year for data center network 400G? Feb 13

Lightware gathered opinions from several people in the industry to look at the opportunity for 400G in the data center during 2020.

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Mentions
Expanding Our Market Research to Include Packet Networks Jan 7

Cignal AI invites you to attend an overview presentation about the expansion of Cignal AI’s optical hardware research to include comprehensive coverage of packet switching and routing in service provider transport networks.

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Free, Webinar
The Era of 400G Coherent Pluggables Finally Emerges Jan 7

Gazettabyte authored a lengthy article about the sampling of the first 400G DSP for use in pluggable applications. It included an interview with Inphi, Neophotonics, and analysts including Andrew Schmitt.

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Mentions
Inphi Samples Industry’s First 400ZR QSFP-DD Transceiver Dec 19

Inphi announced it sampled the industry’s first 400ZR QSFP-DD module to major cloud operators and equipment manufacturers.

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Mentions
Inphi Samples Industry’s First Coherent DSP Enabling 400G Pluggables Nov 25

Inphi announced it sampled its new Canopus coherent DSP, the industry’s first merchant 7nm coherent DSP designed to support 400ZR and 400ZR+ applications. Andrew Schmitt commented in the press release, joined by others from Arista and Juniper.

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Mentions
Infinera Announces XR Optics Sep 23

Infinera introduced its roadmap concept for XR optics, the industry’s first point-to-multipoint coherent optical subcarrier aggregation technology. Andrew Schmitt provided editorial commentary in the release.

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Mentions
Inphi Announces Volume Production Shipments of Porrima PAM4 Platform Sep 23

Inphi announced that it was first to production with a 100Gbps/400Gbps Single-Lambda PAM4, a complete 56GBaud solution with linear TIA and drivers.

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Mentions
Compact Modular Market Slows as Customers Evaluate 600G Sep 17

Sales of Compact Modular platforms slowed during the second quarter of the year despite significant growth from market leader Ciena.

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Press Releases
Webinar – Disaggregated Optical Networks Sep 4

Forward-looking operators use disaggregation to build agile optical transport networks.

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Active Insight, Free, Webinar
Growth Returns as Optical Hardware Spending Increases in Every Region Aug 20

Optical hardware spending grew in every region and for every business segment during 2Q19.

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Press Releases
New Projects at the OIF 3Q19 Meeting Aug 14

Andrew Schmitt spoke at the Optical Internetworking Forum’s 3Q19 meeting in Montreal on July 30th, 2019. The OIF press release mentioned the two new projects kicked off at the meeting as well as highlighted Andrew’s presentation on 400ZR, which was attended by about 100 OIF members.

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Mentions

Events in July–September 2020

  • July 28, 2020 - Juniper Networks publishes 2Q20 earnings
  • August 12, 2020 - Cisco publishes 2Q20 earnings