1Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report

Cignal AI has issued the 1Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report. Similar to the recent Optical Applications release, this report will now be updated quarterly; previously the report was published every six months.

Updates include:

  • Added optical sales during 1Q18 to the five tracked customer verticals, allowing clients to see total purchases of optical equipment by customer market.
  • Updated 1Q18 market share for vendor sales to cloud and colo which benchmarks the magnitude of business each company does with operators in this sector.
  • Adjustments and changes to the Excel and PowerPoint files to reflect the new quarterly release cycle.

The Optical Customer Markets Report examines the following:

  • Optical shipments to five end customer types across four global regions
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo, Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Detailed vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • Forecasts by region and customer type

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

Packet Pushers Hosts Cignal AI

Andrew Schmitt was invited by Packet Pushers and Scott Wilkinson of ECI to participate in one of its weekly podcasts. While not well known in the service provider world, it is popular among the network engineers of small to large Enterprises. Each podcast has about 10,000 downloads per episode.

This episode covered topics of interest to enterprise networking engineers: silicon photonics, data center interconnect (DCI) and enterprises using dark fiber to directly connect sites. It also examines the open optical movement being driven by the Facebook-backed Telecom Infrastructure Project as well as the practice of buying and deploying unbranded optics for use in OEM equipment.

You can listen to the podcast embedded below or at the Packet Pushers site where there are also some show notes.

A full transcript of the show is also available below.

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1Q18 Optical Applications Report

Cignal AI’s 1Q18 Optical Hardware Applications Report has been issued. Its arrival marks the first quarterly release of this report, which will now be standard practice; previously the report was published every six months.

The new report has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Added 200G and 400G+ vendor market share, allowing clients to see total port shipments by vendor along with details by port speed.
  • Added 1Q18 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware as well as 1Q18 100G+ port shipments.
  • Adjusted Compact Modular and Packet-OTN forecasts. There have been some shifts in how both of these markets will develop.

The 1Q18 Optical Applications Report examines the following:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G, 200G, 400G coherent port shipments & vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent, 400G ZR and direct detect port forecasts
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

Current Optical Applications Report subscribers can download updated Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

 

Further detail on the changes and updates to Cignal AI’s Optical Applications Report are below:

Requires subscription.

1Q18 Optical Hardware Report

This report finalizes our full optical equipment market share analysis and has updated forecasts for the industry through 2022. It is released once results for the current quarter (1Q18) are complete, as tabulated in our Optical Hardware Tracker.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report can download an excel file with actual results through 1Q18 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete .pdf document of this report is also available.

 

Detailed analysis of the market and its participants during 1Q18 follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

1Q18 Optical Hardware Tracker

The Cignal AI 1st quarter 2018 (1Q18) Optical Hardware market share tracker is active. This tracker allows clients to download a real-time view of industry results as companies report results. Updates are made continuously and are reflected in the tracking table below.

Results for the quarter are complete.
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4Q17 Optical Customer Markets Report

The 4Q17 edition of the Optical Customer Markets report has been released. It provides insight into how much optical equipment different network operators purchase:

  • Covers 4 global regions and five end customer types with quarterly granularity
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo, Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Forecasts by region and customer type
  • Includes detailed vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • Follows strict methodology to reduce analyst subjectivity

Notable updates include:

  • Updated results by customer market for all of 2017
  • Vendor market share of equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers for all four quarters of 2017
  • Updated PowerPoint report summary
  • Report updates are now quarterly

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

Impact of US Technology Ban on ZTE

On April 16, the United States Department of Commerce announced that ZTE would no longer be allowed to import American technology products. This order represents a reinstatement of a previous order first issued in March 2016 and creates many issues for ZTE, its customers, and suppliers.

While there is no shortage of media coverage of the ban, Cignal AI aims to provide you with unique insight. We have assembled our observations and conclusions on this remarkable event, and we share answers to some common questions we’ve received as it has transpired.

Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

4Q17 Optical Applications Report

The 4Q17 edition of the Optical Hardware Applications report has been released. The report contains details on the following areas:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G+ coherent port shipments & vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent, 400G ZR and direct detect port shipments and forecast
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

This release has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Updates to the 400G port shipment methodology, simplifying the categorization of ports. Physical port shipments are no longer defined by reach. All 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent port shipments are counted, as well as direct detect and 400G ZR for edge applications.
  • Added 3Q and 4Q17 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware.
  • Updated coherent port shipment market share to include Inphi ColorZ historical numbers. Despite not being a coherent solution, it does displace the use of coherent 100G and its impact should be measured.
  • The Compact Modular hardware forecast was increased again. This market continues to grow at rates that outstrip the most optimistic projections.
  • Report updates are now quarterly.

Current subscribers can download Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

OFC 2018 – Operator Perspectives

Each year at OFC, we have the valuable opportunity to hear from the network operators themselves to better understand their vision for the future network. This year, there were some excellent presentations and discussions involving operators from several network verticals – Incumbents, Cable MSOs, and of course the ever-expanding cloud and colocation operators.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

OFC 2018 – 400G Inside the Datacenter

When the conversation at OFC turned to short reach client optics, faster speeds were the central focus.  Several companies announced products and gave demonstrations of 400G capable technology. The 100G speeds and production ramp that had been such a hot topic at OFC 2017 had little follow-on during 2018.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

OFC 2018 – Coherent Technology

Trends in coherent technology generated enthusiasm among the participants at OFC 2018, and 400G ZR applications were of particular interest. Nokia and Infinera outlined next-generation coherent roadmaps, and Acacia and NTT Electronics showcased silicon fresh back from the fab. Many component companies announced smaller, lower cost devices to enable new WDM applications. In this report, Cignal AI examines OFC 2018’s coherent technology announcements and their implications.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

OFC 2018 – Compact Modular Equipment

Compact Modular Equipment took center stage at OFC 2018. News included speed upgrades to existing systems, the emergence of new switch/router variants, and open line systems designed to address the growing interest in optical hardware disaggregation.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

OFC 2018 – Consolidation

Each year, there is at least one announcement at OFC which surprises the industry. In 2016, the announcement was the introduction of Inphi’s ColorZ, while in 2017 it was news of Ciena choosing to license the Wavelogic DSP to module vendors. And yet, OFC2018 delivered a surprise that exceeded both: Lumentum will acquire Oclaro.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

Nokia PSE-3 Coherent Chipset

On March 6, 2018, Nokia announced its fourth generation coherent optical technology, the PSE-3, which continues the company’s strategy of developing coherent DSP processors in-house. Nokia is betting that these chips will differentiate the performance, price, and availability of its optical hardware products.

This Cignal AI report explores what makes the new PSE-3s different from off-the-shelf solutions and examines the question of whether or not vertical integration still makes sense in this market.

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Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

4Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On February 14th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 4th quarter 2017 (4Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2022.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 4Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 4Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

 

We extended our forecasts for revenue and ports to 2022, and made minor adjustments to our worldwide 2019 and longer-term forecasts; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

Investor Call – Piper Jaffray Optical Event

Andrew Schmitt was the featured speaker on an investor call hosted by Troy Jensen of Piper Jaffray on February 21st. Forty-four participants listened in and posed their questions as Andrew gave his perspective on the latest events in the optical component and equipment market.

Topics during the call included:

  • Anticipated impact of China’s MIIT plan on existing component suppliers
  • The divergence in Chinese equipment revenue and supply chain
  • The market outlook for ROADMs in 2018
  • The 400G+ Coherent DSP and component outlook
  • The evolution of the CFP2-ACO and DCO market
  • Analysis of equipment companies outsourcing DSPs
  • Update on Inphi’s ColorZ, modulator driver, and PAM-4 business
  • Infinera’s market opportunity with the CX2 and ICE4 based products
  • North American CapEx in 2018 and optical equipment forecast
  • Ciena’s 400G market monopoly in 2018

Active Insight clients can access a summary of the key takeaways, a written transcript, an audio replay, and participate in Q&A.

Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

4Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 4th quarter 2017 (4Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter as well as the entire calendar year 2017 (CY17).

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 4Q17. This Excel file contains updated data for 4Q17 and the previous forecast made during 3Q17. Updated forecasts and additional analysis will be published by March 2nd, 2018.

Analysis of the market and its participants during 4Q17 and CY17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

China’s 5 Year Optical Component Plan

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released a five-year plan in December 2017 outlining a roadmap for commercial and technological progress in a broad set of optical technologies. The 63-page document is in Chinese. The following Cignal AI report is based on a professionally translated version of the document and summarizes the section of the plan about the Chinese optical component industry.

The goals and objectives outlined in the plan are exceptionally ambitious and should concern incumbent component vendors. This document outlines strategic rather than rational economic objectives to catalyze market progress in Chinese component companies. Our interpretation is that this will increase the number of non-rational economic actors participating in the component market.

If executed, this plan will greatly increase the level of competition in an already fractured industry.  It will also reduce or in some cases eliminate access for western component vendors to the largest market for optical communications components in the world – China.

Electronic copies of the source MIIT document as well as the translated version of the section on optical components are available to clients for download.

Chinese PDF English PDF

 

Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

3Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On November 21st, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 3rd quarter 2017 (3Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 3Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 3Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

 

We made minor adjustments to our worldwide 2018 and longer-term forecasts; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.