Modern Market Research for Networking Communications

Cignal AI provides active and insightful market research for the networking component and equipment market as well as its end customers.

Services

Cignal AI provides reporting on Optical and Packet Transport Hardware, Applications, and Customer Markets on a quarterly and annual subscription basis. Cignal AI clients subscribed to one or more of our market reports receive Active Insight news service as a benefit, free of charge, during their subscription term.

HardwareApplicationsCustomer MarketsActive InsightReal-Time Updates

Tracks the vendors that sell optical and/or packet transport hardware and provides detailed market share, forecasts, and vendor profile reports across 6 global regions and 8 product categories

  • Nokia 2Q20 Vendor Summary Report
    Nokia reported rising demand from customers but a continued COVID impact on the supply chain, resulting in a down quarter in almost every region and product segment.
  • ADVA 2Q20 Vendor Summary Report
    ADVA reported YoY growth in the second quarter but retracted guidance for the rest of the year, a narrative that will be echoed by many vendors in Q2.
  • Ciena 2Q20 Vendor Summary Report
    Ciena expects to generate revenue growth of 2-4% in a flat (ex-China) market in 2020, implying declines YoY for optical sales in the second half of the year.
  • 1Q20 Transport Hardware Report
    Vendors generally claimed a 5-10% reduction in sales due to COVID-19 operational issues this quarter. While demand increased, the inability to get parts, manufacture equipment, and deliver to end customers reduced sales in all areas.

Analyzes rapidly changing transport market segments that address specific functions or customer applications

  • 1Q20 Transport Applications Report
    Packet-OTN sales doubled in NA as carriers responded to COVID-19, and shipments of 400Gbps+ ports doubled YoY as Chinese equipment companies entered production.
  • 4Q19 Transport Applications Report
    Compact Modular sales growth slowed in North America in the 4th quarter, but sales growth outside of NA was exceptionally strong and total worldwide sales grew nearly 50% year-over-year.
  • 3Q19 Optical Applications Report
    200G coherent shipments from China exceeded forecasts, worldwide shipments of 100G coherent ports will now decline until lower-cost alternatives emerge.
  • 2Q19 Optical Applications Report
    Over a quarter of North American compact modular sales were for long haul deployments as applications continue to expand.

Tabulates transport equipment purchased by operators representing several customer verticals

  • 1Q20 Transport Customer Markets Report
    North American Incumbent optical spending was up almost 50% YoY while Wholesale, Cable/MSO, and Cloud spending all declined this quarter.
  • 4Q19 Transport Customer Markets Report
    Cloud & Colo optical spending growth cooled in the 4th quarter but still led growth for the year with Ciena as market share leader. North American Incumbent and Cable/MSO optical spending came back strong in the 4th quarter.
  • 3Q19 Optical Customer Markets Report
    Cloud & Colo led growth in North America, up 45% this quarter. Ciena increased its market share to over 50% in 3Q19.
  • 2Q19 Optical Customer Markets Report
    Incumbent spending grew in every region, Cloud & Colo spending growth slowed, and Cable & MSO sales declined.

Cignal AI’s news service, delivering articles and analysis on important optical market events and items of interest as they occur

  • 5th Gen Coherent Trials and Deployments
    Cignal AI continues to track announcements of 5th generation (800Gbps-capable, 90+ GBaud) optical trials and deployments.
  • Coherent Port Pricing Trends (1Q20)
    Our 3Q18 report showed coherent optical port pricing dropping at 26% per year. This report examines the stability of that trend over the last 12 months as new coherent systems entered the market.
  • Nokia PSE-V Coherent Chipset
    Overview and analysis of Nokia’s fifth generation of coherent DSPs, the PSE-Vs, and PSE-Vc.
  • Acacia 1Q20 Vendor Summary Report
    Acacia’s results are a bellwether to the industry. This report looks at the most recent results for the company and examines them in the context of historical trends.

Events in June–August 2020

  • June 3, 2020 - Nokia*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Nokia~1Q20~Complete
    Nokia 1Q20 results updatedJun 03

    Nokia is complete for the quarter.

  • June 10, 2020 - Ciena*total*numbers*are*correct*but*regional*and*customer*splits*a re*estimated*at*this*time.~Ciena~2Q20~Estimated
    Ciena 2Q20 results updated - estimatedJun 10

    Ciena total numbers are correct but regional and customer splits are estimated at this time.

  • June 15, 2020 - Ciena*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Ciena~2Q20~Complete
    Ciena 2Q20 results updatedJun 15

    Ciena is complete for the quarter.

  • July 23, 2020 - ADVA*totals*are*correct*but*regional*and*product*splits*are*estima ted*at*this*time.~ADVA~2Q20~Estimated
    ADVA 2Q20 results updated - estimatedJul 23

    ADVA totals are correct but regional and product splits are estimated at this time.

  • July 29, 2020 - Tejas*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Tejas*Networks~2Q20~Complete, Juniper*total*numbers*are*correct*but*regional*and*customer*splits *are*estimated*at*this*time.~Juniper*Networks~2Q20~Estimated
    Tejas Networks 2Q20 results updatedJul 29

    Tejas is complete for the quarter.

    Juniper Networks 2Q20 results updated - estimatedJul 29

    Juniper total numbers are correct but regional and customer splits are estimated at this time.

  • July 31, 2020 - Nokia*terrestrial*totals*are*correct*but*regional*and*product*spli ts*are*estimated*at*this*time.*Nokia*SLTE*numbers*are*estimated*at*this*ti me.~Nokia~2Q20~Estimated, Ekinops*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Ekinops~2Q20~Complete, Ericsson*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Ericsson~2Q20~Complete
    Nokia 2Q20 results updated - estimatedJul 31

    Nokia terrestrial totals are correct but regional and product splits are estimated at this time. Nokia SLTE numbers are estimated at this time.

    Ekinops 2Q20 results updatedJul 31

    Ekinops is complete for the quarter.

    Ericsson 2Q20 results updatedJul 31

    Ericsson is complete for the quarter.

  • August 5, 2020 - Nokia*terrestrial*numbers*are*complete*for*the*quarter.*SLTE*numbe rs*are*estimated*at*this*time.~Nokia~2Q20~Estimated
    Nokia 2Q20 results updated - estimatedAug 05

    Nokia terrestrial numbers are complete for the quarter. SLTE numbers are estimated at this time.

  • August 6, 2020 - Infinera*total*numbers*are*correct*but*regional*and*customer*split s*are*estimated*at*this*time.~Infinera~2Q20~Estimated, ADTRAN*is*complete*for*the*quarter.~Adtran~2Q20~Complete, Ribbon*totals*are*correct*but*regional*and*product*splits*are*esti mated*at*this*time.~Ribbon*Communications~2Q20~Estimated
    Infinera 2Q20 results updated - estimatedAug 06

    Infinera total numbers are correct but regional and customer splits are estimated at this time.

    Adtran 2Q20 results updatedAug 06

    ADTRAN is complete for the quarter.

    Ribbon Communications 2Q20 results updated - estimatedAug 06

    Ribbon totals are correct but regional and product splits are estimated at this time.

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Recent Publications

5th Gen Coherent Trials and Deployments Aug 5

Cignal AI continues to track announcements of 5th generation (800Gbps-capable, 90+ GBaud) optical trials and deployments.

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Active Insight, Free, Latest
1Q20 network operator capex jump didn’t help everyone Jun 1

Lightwave published an article summarizing 1Q20 optical hardware results using data from our report.

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Mentions
Network Operators Accelerate Capex in Response to COVID-19 May 29

The effects of COVID-19 simultaneously catalyzed demand for transport equipment and paralyzed supply chains worldwide during the first quarter of 2020.

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Press Releases, Transport Hardware
Nokia PSE-V Coherent Chipset May 21

Overview and analysis of Nokia’s fifth generation of coherent DSPs, the PSE-Vs, and PSE-Vc.

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Active Insight, Free, Latest
Nokia launches WaveFabric Elements optical portfolio for 400G ecosystem May 21

Nokia launched it’s 5th generation coherent solution. This includes new PSE-5 DSPs, new CSTAR silicon photonics from its Elenion acquisition, and pluggable CFP2-DCO and QSFP-288DD pluggable modules.

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Mentions
OIF Publishes Implementation Agreement for 400ZR Apr 29

The OIF announced that the official release of the 400ZR implementation agreement is now available for download.

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Mentions
COVID-19 Impact – 2020 Forecast Update Apr 24

Cignal AI updated the 2020 optical and packet transport hardware forecast with our best estimates of the impact of COVID-19.

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Active Insight, Free, Latest
Infinera Unveils More Compact Modular Optical Transport Solutions Apr 1

Infinera announced new versions of the Groove chassis to support 5th generation coherent ICE6 optics and provide feature enhancements to better address applications outside of cloud and colo operators.

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Mentions
North American Optical Sales Rebound In 2019 Mar 10

Recent optical sales in North America were encouraging – up more than 25% for 4Q19 and 10% for all of 2019 according to the most recent Transport Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI.

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Press Releases
Acacia Builds Upon Coherent Pluggable Leadership with 400G Portfolio Mar 5

Acacia announced a new family of 400G coherent pluggable optics for 400ZR/Open ROADM applications based on the new 7nm Greylock DSP.

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Mentions
OFC 2020 Preview and Predictions Feb 24

The Optical Fiber Communications Conference is the most significant industry trade and technical show for optical communications. In preparation for the event, Cignal AI has compiled a list of what to watch at OFC and what announcements to expect.

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Active Insight, Free, Latest
Is 2020 the year for data center network 400G? Feb 13

Lightwave gathered opinions from several people in the industry to look at the opportunity for 400G in the data center during 2020.

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Mentions
Expanding Our Market Research to Include Packet Networks Jan 7

Cignal AI invites you to attend an overview presentation about the expansion of Cignal AI’s optical hardware research to include comprehensive coverage of packet switching and routing in service provider transport networks.

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Free, Webinar
The Era of 400G Coherent Pluggables Finally Emerges Jan 7

Gazettabyte authored a lengthy article about the sampling of the first 400G DSP for use in pluggable applications. It included an interview with Inphi, Neophotonics, and analysts including Andrew Schmitt.

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Mentions
Inphi Samples Industry’s First 400ZR QSFP-DD Transceiver Dec 19

Inphi announced it sampled the industry’s first 400ZR QSFP-DD module to major cloud operators and equipment manufacturers.

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Mentions
Inphi Samples Industry’s First Coherent DSP Enabling 400G Pluggables Nov 25

Inphi announced it sampled its new Canopus coherent DSP, the industry’s first merchant 7nm coherent DSP designed to support 400ZR and 400ZR+ applications. Andrew Schmitt commented in the press release, joined by others from Arista and Juniper.

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Mentions
Infinera Announces XR Optics Sep 23

Infinera introduced its roadmap concept for XR optics, the industry’s first point-to-multipoint coherent optical subcarrier aggregation technology. Andrew Schmitt provided editorial commentary in the release.

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Mentions
Inphi Announces Volume Production Shipments of Porrima PAM4 Platform Sep 23

Inphi announced that it was first to production with a 100Gbps/400Gbps Single-Lambda PAM4, a complete 56GBaud solution with linear TIA and drivers.

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Mentions
Compact Modular Market Slows as Customers Evaluate 600G Sep 17

Sales of Compact Modular platforms slowed during the second quarter of the year despite significant growth from market leader Ciena.

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Press Releases
Webinar – Disaggregated Optical Networks Sep 4

Forward-looking operators use disaggregation to build agile optical transport networks.

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Active Insight, Free, Webinar

Events in August–October 2020

  • August 4, 2020 - Inphi (IPHI) 2Q20, IPG Photonics (IPGP) 2Q20, Arista Networks (ANET) 2Q20, NeoPhotonics (NPTN) 2Q20, Microchip (MCHP) 2Q20
  • August 5, 2020 - Commscope (COMM) 2Q20, Adtran (ADTN) 2Q20, Ribbon Communications (RBBN) 2Q20, Infinera (INFN) 2Q20
  • August 6, 2020 - Emcore (EMKR) 2Q20, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) 2Q20
  • August 10, 2020 - Viavi (VIAV) 2Q20
  • August 11, 2020 - Acacia (ACIA) 2Q20 *, Lumentum (LITE) 2Q20
  • August 12, 2020 - Cisco (CSCO) 2Q20
  • August 13, 2020 - II-VI (IIVI) 2Q20
  • August 17, 2020 - Fabrinet (FN) 2Q20
  • August 19, 2020 - Analog Devices (ADI) 2Q20
  • August 26, 2020 - Marvell (MRVL) 2Q20 *, Semtech (SMTC) 2Q20 *
  • August 31, 2020 - 2Q20 Transport Hardware
  • September 2, 2020 - Broadcom (AVGO) 3Q20 *, Ciena (CIEN) 3Q20 *
  • September 15, 2020 - 2Q20 Optical Applications
  • September 30, 2020 - 2Q20 Transport Customer Markets