2Q18 Optical Hardware Tracker

The Cignal AI 2nd quarter 2018 (2Q18) Optical Hardware market share tracker is active. This tracker allows clients to download a real-time view of industry results as companies report. Updates are made continuously and are reflected in the tracking table below.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results reported-to-date through 2Q18. This Excel file contains reported vendor data for 2Q18 and the previous forecast made during 1Q17. A complete report with all vendors and updated forecasts will be published by August 25th, 2018.

Report Details Excel

 

Adtran
ADVA
Ciena
Coriant
ECI
Ekinops
Fujitsu
Huawei
Infinera
Mitsubishi
NEC
Nokia
Padtec
TE Conn
Xtera
ZTE
Juniper
Fiberhome
Cisco

Requires Optical Hardware subscription

Third Generation Coherent Technology

The transition to the latest coherent WDM technology is underway and its effects are rippling through the optical market. It’s time to take a step back and sort out where things are, what worked, who benefitted, and what happens next.

In this Active Insight report, Cignal AI outlines several generations of coherent WDM deployments and examines the catalysts and keys to market success for the third generation of coherent.

Summary

  • Third generation coherent has arrived and will account for almost all global coherent market growth starting in 2019.
  • Maximum speed alone is not a sufficient benchmark for success in the coherent market. Baud rate and system features better differentiate coherent generations as multi-haul technology becomes a reality.
  • Historically, vertically integrated companies that design and engineer the coherent link end-to-end have been first to market and capture most of the worldwide market share.
  • 4th gen coherent is only two years away and will address the massive metro-edge market. The introduction of 400ZR and lower speed derivatives will squeeze out 10Gb/s WDM deployments.
  • The transition to 5th gen coherent places greater importance on system-level engineering as the Shannon limit is reached and opportunities for improvement in the coherent DSP diminish.

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Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

Optical Market Trends Now: ADVA

On August 2, 2018 Cignal AI hosted its first webinar Optical Market Trends Now: ADVA

Lead analyst Andrew Schmitt joined Ulrich Dopfer, ADVA CFO and Stephan Rettenberger, ADVA Senior VP of Marketing and Investor Relations to provide their various perspectives on the optical industry, including;

  • Current trends in the DCI market and ADVA’s strategic outlook
  • Discussion of the compressed timelines and lifecycles of large cloud operators, and how vendors can differentiate themselves when operators pursue hardware disaggregation.
  • Emerging trends in the Ethernet access and 5G markets—what to look for in the next 12 months.

We’re excited to share this free-form discussion with investors and network operators.  Even if you missed the live event you can still watch a replay and receive a PDF of the transcript

Register with your corporate email address

 

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Cloud Spending on Optical Hardware – 1Q18 Update

In October 2017,  Cignal AI analyzed the occurrence of a slowdown in spending by cloud & colo operators and quantified the magnitude of its impact (see Analysis: 1H17 Cloud and Colo Spending Slowdown).

The report conclusions contradicted the common but inaccurate perception that spending by cloud operators such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft on optical transport equipment was growing at a rapid rate.

This report has been enhanced with new analysis and updated vendor shipment data from 3Q17, 4Q17, and 1Q18 from equipment and component vendors.

This update includes:

  • A summary of cloud & colo spending definitions
  • Fresh analysis of changes in quarterly spending trends by cloud & colo operators through 1Q18
  • Recent shifts in market share among optical equipment vendors to this customer market
  • Quantitative analysis of underlying causes of flat spending, including continued price compression through 2018 and displacement by IPoDWDM via Inphi, Acacia, and Oclaro components.

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Requires Optical Customer Markets subscription

1Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report

Cignal AI has issued the 1Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report. Similar to the recent Optical Applications release, this report will now be updated quarterly; previously the report was published every six months.

Updates include:

  • Added optical sales during 1Q18 to the five tracked customer verticals, allowing clients to see total purchases of optical equipment by customer market.
  • Updated 1Q18 market share for vendor sales to cloud and colo which benchmarks the magnitude of business each company does with operators in this sector.
  • Adjustments and changes to the Excel and PowerPoint files to reflect the new quarterly release cycle.

The Optical Customer Markets Report examines the following:

  • Optical shipments to five end customer types across four global regions
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo, Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Detailed vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • Forecasts by region and customer type

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

Packet Pushers Hosts Cignal AI

Andrew Schmitt was invited by Packet Pushers and Scott Wilkinson of ECI to participate in one of its weekly podcasts. While not well known in the service provider world, it is popular among the network engineers of small to large Enterprises. Each podcast has about 10,000 downloads per episode.

This episode covered topics of interest to enterprise networking engineers: silicon photonics, data center interconnect (DCI) and enterprises using dark fiber to directly connect sites. It also examines the open optical movement being driven by the Facebook-backed Telecom Infrastructure Project as well as the practice of buying and deploying unbranded optics for use in OEM equipment.

You can listen to the podcast embedded below or at the Packet Pushers site where there are also some show notes.

A full transcript of the show is also available for clients.

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1Q18 Optical Applications Report

Cignal AI’s 1Q18 Optical Hardware Applications Report has been issued. Its arrival marks the first quarterly release of this report, which will now be standard practice; previously the report was published every six months.

The new report has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Added 200G and 400G+ vendor market share, allowing clients to see total port shipments by vendor along with details by port speed.
  • Added 1Q18 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware as well as 1Q18 100G+ port shipments.
  • Adjusted Compact Modular and Packet-OTN forecasts. There have been some shifts in how both of these markets will develop.

The 1Q18 Optical Applications Report examines the following:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G, 200G, 400G coherent port shipments & vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent, 400G ZR and direct detect port forecasts
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

Current Optical Applications Report subscribers can download updated Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

 

Further detail on the changes and updates to Cignal AI’s Optical Applications Report are below:

Requires Optical Hardware Applications subscription

1Q18 Optical Hardware Report

This report finalizes our full optical equipment market share analysis and has updated forecasts for the industry through 2022. It is released once results for the current quarter (1Q18) are complete, as tabulated in our Optical Hardware Tracker.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report can download an excel file with actual results through 1Q18 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete .pdf document of this report is also available.

 

Detailed analysis of the market and its participants during 1Q18 follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription

1Q18 Optical Hardware Tracker

The Cignal AI 1st quarter 2018 (1Q18) Optical Hardware market share tracker is active. This tracker allows clients to download a real-time view of industry results as companies report results. Updates are made continuously and are reflected in the tracking table below.

Results for the quarter are complete.
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4Q17 Optical Customer Markets Report

The 4Q17 edition of the Optical Customer Markets report has been released. It provides insight into how much optical equipment different network operators purchase:

  • Covers 4 global regions and five end customer types with quarterly granularity
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo, Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Forecasts by region and customer type
  • Includes detailed vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • Follows strict methodology to reduce analyst subjectivity

Notable updates include:

  • Updated results by customer market for all of 2017
  • Vendor market share of equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers for all four quarters of 2017
  • Updated PowerPoint report summary
  • Report updates are now quarterly

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

Impact of US Technology Ban on ZTE

On April 16, the United States Department of Commerce announced that ZTE would no longer be allowed to import American technology products. This order represents a reinstatement of a previous order first issued in March 2016 and creates many issues for ZTE, its customers, and suppliers.

While there is no shortage of media coverage of the ban, Cignal AI aims to provide you with unique insight. We have assembled our observations and conclusions on this remarkable event, and we share answers to some common questions we’ve received as it has transpired.

Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

OFC 2018 Post-Show Report

Each year, OFC showcases the most noteworthy developments in the optical industry, and this year was no exception. Companies utilized OFC as a venue to announce and demonstrate new products and solutions such as coherent technology, hardware disaggregation, and 400G inside the data center.

Cignal AI was honored to be selected by the organizers of OFC 2018 to author its Post-Show Report, which examines topics of interest during the March 3-7 event in San Diego. Coverage includes our analysis of market trends and product announcements, including:

  •        Consolidation Buzz
  •        Compact Modular Equipment and Hardware Disaggregation
  •        Operator Perspectives
  •        Coherent Technology
  •        400G Inside the Data Center
  •        Outlook for 2018

While this OFC report offers a comprehensive summary of the show and its implications, more commentary and opinion was provided in Cignal AI subscription reporting that was released within a week of the show’s conclusion.

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4Q17 Optical Applications Report

The 4Q17 edition of the Optical Hardware Applications report has been released. The report contains details on the following areas:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G+ coherent port shipments & vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent, 400G ZR and direct detect port shipments and forecast
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

This release has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Updates to the 400G port shipment methodology, simplifying the categorization of ports. Physical port shipments are no longer defined by reach. All 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent port shipments are counted, as well as direct detect and 400G ZR for edge applications.
  • Added 3Q and 4Q17 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware.
  • Updated coherent port shipment market share to include Inphi ColorZ historical numbers. Despite not being a coherent solution, it does displace the use of coherent 100G and its impact should be measured.
  • The Compact Modular hardware forecast was increased again. This market continues to grow at rates that outstrip the most optimistic projections.
  • Report updates are now quarterly.

Current subscribers can download Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

OFC 2018 – Operator Perspectives

Each year at OFC, we have the valuable opportunity to hear from the network operators themselves to better understand their vision for the future network. This year, there were some excellent presentations and discussions involving operators from several network verticals – Incumbents, Cable MSOs, and of course the ever-expanding cloud and colocation operators.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

OFC 2018 – 400G Inside the Datacenter

When the conversation at OFC turned to short reach client optics, faster speeds were the central focus.  Several companies announced products and gave demonstrations of 400G capable technology. The 100G speeds and production ramp that had been such a hot topic at OFC 2017 had little follow-on during 2018.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

OFC 2018 – Coherent Technology

Trends in coherent technology generated enthusiasm among the participants at OFC 2018, and 400G ZR applications were of particular interest. Nokia and Infinera outlined next-generation coherent roadmaps, and Acacia and NTT Electronics showcased silicon fresh back from the fab. Many component companies announced smaller, lower cost devices to enable new WDM applications. In this report, Cignal AI examines OFC 2018’s coherent technology announcements and their implications.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

OFC 2018 – Compact Modular Equipment

Compact Modular Equipment took center stage at OFC 2018. News included speed upgrades to existing systems, the emergence of new switch/router variants, and open line systems designed to address the growing interest in optical hardware disaggregation.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

Nokia PSE-3 Coherent Chipset

On March 6, 2018, Nokia announced its fourth generation coherent optical technology, the PSE-3, which continues the company’s strategy of developing coherent DSP processors in-house. Nokia is betting that these chips will differentiate the performance, price, and availability of its optical hardware products.

This Cignal AI report explores what makes the new PSE-3s different from off-the-shelf solutions and examines the question of whether or not vertical integration still makes sense in this market.

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OFC 2018 – Consolidation

Each year, there is at least one announcement at OFC which surprises the industry. In 2016, the announcement was the introduction of Inphi’s ColorZ, while in 2017 it was news of Ciena choosing to license the Wavelogic DSP to module vendors. And yet, OFC2018 delivered a surprise that exceeded both: Lumentum will acquire Oclaro.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription

Nokia PSE-3 Coherent Chipset

On March 6, 2018, Nokia announced its fourth generation coherent optical technology, the PSE-3, which continues the company’s strategy of developing coherent DSP processors in-house. Nokia is betting that these chips will differentiate the performance, price, and availability of its optical hardware products.

This Cignal AI report explores what makes the new PSE-3s different from off-the-shelf solutions and examines the question of whether or not vertical integration still makes sense in this market.

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Requires Optical Active Insight subscription