BOSTON (July 30, 2026) – Market research firm Cignal AI recently published the report Optical Circuit Switching Market – 2Q26, in which it raised its forecast for the optical circuit switch (OCS) market to more than $8 billion by 2030. The sharp increase over prior forecasts reflects new visibility into the emerging Scale Up opportunity in Nvidia and other GPU-based networks, which adds to the established Scale Out (TPU) application at Google. The report update provides a detailed Scale Up model, refreshed OCS port-to-XPU ratios, and expanded vendor coverage of more than 20 suppliers.
“OCS started as a Google story, and we’ve been searching to identify the next volume customer or application, and it is next-generation optical-based scale-up architectures,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Components at Cignal AI. “As Nvidia moves optics into Scale Up with CPO and multi-bay architectures like NVL576, optical switching gains a second market that can rival the TPU deployments currently dominating OCS sales.”
Because market size depends heavily on a few highly variable assumptions ($/port, XPU shipments), the OCS report includes an interactive tool that lets users substitute their own TPU and GPU shipment projections for Cignal AI’s and see how the forecast changes.
Highlights from the Optical Circuit Switching Market – 2Q26:
- Scale Out for TPU networks remains the only volume application today and will be the dominant part of the market for the next two to three years. Near-term revenue is concentrated at Google, where OCS development has been internal but is shifting to third-party vendors.
- Scale Up in GPU networks is an emerging application tied to rack-to-rack optical interconnect, particularly in Nvidia’s rack-scale roadmap. Nvidia plans to integrate OCS into its coming Rubin Ultra NVL576 architecture, with significant volume beginning in 2028.
- OCS revenue growth is projected at a compound annual growth rate of more than 30% from 2026 to 2030. Revenue and port shipments broken out by application (Scale Out, Scale Up, Spine Layer Replacement, and others) are detailed in the report.
- The vendor field continues to widen with the introduction of SiPho-based startups. Google has seeded purchase orders to Lumentum, Coherent, and Huber+Suhner as it moves from internal development toward a competitive merchant supply base, but scale-up applications present a compelling entry point for SiPho-based vendors.
- OCS deployment reshapes datacenter transceiver requirements. Single-fiber FR optics and standards such as the OCI MSA are favored over parallel-fiber DR optics, and customizations such as higher optical power and circulators for bi-directional operation are becoming more common.
About the Report
Cignal AI’s Optical Circuit Switching Market Report provides a comprehensive analysis of OCS technology, applications, and the competitive landscape, including detailed coverage of Scale Out (TPU) and Scale Up (GPU) networks, OCS port-to-XPU ratios, and market size and port-shipment forecasts through 2030. The report profiles more than 20 OCS vendors across MEMS, liquid crystal, piezoelectric, robotic, and silicon photonics technologies, and examines the impact of OCS deployment on datacenter transceivers.
OCS shipments and forecasts are incorporated in Cignal AI’s quarterly Optical Components Report and are updated in the Live Excel deliverable whenever estimates change between report cycles.
The OCS report is part of Cignal AI’s Active Insight research service. Active Insight market research is included with Transport Hardware and Optical Components research subscriptions.
About Cignal AI
Cignal AI provides active and insightful market research for the networking component and equipment market and the market’s end customers. Our work blends expertise from a variety of disciplines to create a uniquely informed perspective on the evolution of networking communications.
Our research is relied on by leading optical component makers, system vendors, hyperscalers, and investors across the networking industry. A sample of these customers is at the link below.
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