BOSTON (May 12, 2026) – Market research firm Cignal AI recently published Co-Packaged Optics and ELSFP, an Active Insight report that debuts the company’s new quantitative forecasts for CPO deployment and the ELSFP module market. After years of technical potential but insufficient commercial traction that would allow a realistic forecast of CPO’s adoption, massive investment has now pushed the technology to the threshold of commercial deployment.
Cignal AI has now incorporated a comprehensive CPO forecast into its Optical Component Report based on ELSFP shipments and equivalent pluggable 1.6/3.2T ports. Clients can access this forecast in the latest live Excel database, and it will be tracked and updated as part of ongoing quarterly releases.
“We held off on a CPO forecast because the technology was always two to five years from deployment. But now, TSMC, Nvidia, and Broadcom are pushing this technology to market with the investment necessary to achieve scale,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Components at Cignal AI. “Nvidia is assuming the investment and technical risk of first deployment, and we expect the next twelve months will see CPO fulfill its promise at 200G/lane. The era of CPO has finally begun.”
Additional Details from the CPO and ELSFP Report:
- The ELSFP module market will exceed $100 million in 2026 and grow to more than $1.5 billion annually by 2030, as scale-up applications reach volume production.
- Conservatively, over 30 million CPO ports could be deployed annually by 2030, with growth starting in 2027 and accelerating in 2029/2030.
- CPO’s initial impact on the pluggable transceiver market will be minimal. In scale-out, deployments will be a fraction of the 1.6T pluggable market. In scale-up, CPO replaces copper, opening an entirely new market for optical connectivity.
- Nvidia will be the first vendor to deploy CPO at volume through its Quantum-X and Spectrum-X switches. Broadcom’s Davisson platform will provide a second path to commercial deployment once Nvidia has proven the technology works at scale.
- CPO deployment in scale-up networks is expected in late 2028 or early 2029, following successful technical and commercial demonstrations in the scale-out network.
About the Report
The Co-Packaged Optics and ELSFP Active Insight report provides a comprehensive analysis of CPO technology, applications, and competitive landscape, including detailed coverage of silicon photonics, ELSFP lasers, chip-to-chip interconnect, and co-packaging approaches. The report covers the benefits and challenges of CPO across scale-out and scale-up networks, the status of development from Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC, and others, and includes Cignal AI’s first quantitative forecasts for CPO port deployment and the ELSFP module market through 2030. The report is part of Cignal AI’s Active Insight research service which is included with Transport Hardware and Optical Component research subscriptions.
Cignal AI’s Optical Components Report is published quarterly and provides revenue-based market share of company sales into four optical component markets: Datacom, Telecom, Industrial, and Consumer. The report also tracks detailed unit shipments and total market size of datacom and telecom components, including 400GbE / 800GbE / 1.6TbE datacom transceivers used for intra-datacenter applications, as well as 400ZR / 800ZR pluggable and embedded coherent transceivers for telecom applications. ELSFPs used in CPO applications and OCS hardware are also included as part of the report.
A full description of the report methodology, including an up-to-date listing of all product categories as well as the latest reports and presentations, is available on the report page.
About Cignal AI
Cignal AI provides active and insightful market research for the networking component and equipment market and the market’s end customers. Our work blends expertise from a variety of disciplines to create a uniquely informed perspective on the evolution of networking communications.
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