2Q16 Optical Hardware Forecast

On August 22nd, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 2nd quarter 2016 (2Q16), to be followed by an adjunct report two weeks later. This second report, issued on September 9, extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2020.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 2Q16 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts.

Excel PDF

There are some notable changes to our initial 2016 forecast developed in 1Q16:

  • A reduced North American forecast, influenced by Infinera’s lower guidance and a lack of growth from other vendors to fill the void. Weaker than expected tier-1 spending also plays a factor. We also slightly re-balanced the expected LH and Metro spending split for 2017+.
  • An increased 2016 Chinese forecast propelled by exceptional WDM spending patterns in 1H16.
  • An increased CALA forecast based on stabilizing currency effects and 1H16 performance.
  • Reduced Japanese SONET/SDH forecasts for 2017, and added a more dramatic rate of decline in 2018+.

Detailed discussion of our 2016 and long term forecasts follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.