1Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report

Cignal AI has issued the 1Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report. Similar to the recent Optical Applications release, this report will now be updated quarterly; previously the report was published every six months.

Updates include:

  • Added optical sales during 1Q18 to the five tracked customer verticals, allowing clients to see total purchases of optical equipment by customer market.
  • Updated 1Q18 market share for vendor sales to cloud and colo which benchmarks the magnitude of business each company does with operators in this sector.
  • Adjustments and changes to the Excel and PowerPoint files to reflect the new quarterly release cycle.

The Optical Customer Markets Report examines the following:

  • Optical shipments to five end customer types across four global regions
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo, Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Detailed vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • Forecasts by region and customer type

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

1Q18 Optical Applications Report

Cignal AI’s 1Q18 Optical Hardware Applications Report has been issued. Its arrival marks the first quarterly release of this report, which will now be standard practice; previously the report was published every six months.

The new report has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Added 200G and 400G+ vendor market share, allowing clients to see total port shipments by vendor along with details by port speed.
  • Added 1Q18 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware as well as 1Q18 100G+ port shipments.
  • Adjusted Compact Modular and Packet-OTN forecasts. There have been some shifts in how both of these markets will develop.

The 1Q18 Optical Applications Report examines the following:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G, 200G, 400G coherent port shipments & vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent, 400G ZR and direct detect port forecasts
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

Current Optical Applications Report subscribers can download updated Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

 

Further detail on the changes and updates to Cignal AI’s Optical Applications Report are below:

Requires subscription.

1Q18 Optical Hardware Report

This report finalizes our full optical equipment market share analysis and has updated forecasts for the industry through 2022. It is released once results for the current quarter (1Q18) are complete, as tabulated in our Optical Hardware Tracker.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report can download an excel file with actual results through 1Q18 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete .pdf document of this report is also available.

 

Detailed analysis of the market and its participants during 1Q18 follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

1Q18 Optical Hardware Tracker

The Cignal AI 1st quarter 2018 (1Q18) Optical Hardware market share tracker is active. This tracker allows clients to download a real-time view of industry results as companies report results. Updates are made continuously and are reflected in the tracking table below.

Results for the quarter are complete.
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4Q17 Optical Customer Markets Report

The 4Q17 edition of the Optical Customer Markets report has been released. It provides insight into how much optical equipment different network operators purchase:

  • Covers 4 global regions and five end customer types with quarterly granularity
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo, Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Forecasts by region and customer type
  • Includes detailed vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • Follows strict methodology to reduce analyst subjectivity

Notable updates include:

  • Updated results by customer market for all of 2017
  • Vendor market share of equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers for all four quarters of 2017
  • Updated PowerPoint report summary
  • Report updates are now quarterly

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

4Q17 Optical Applications Report

The 4Q17 edition of the Optical Hardware Applications report has been released. The report contains details on the following areas:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G+ coherent port shipments & vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent, 400G ZR and direct detect port shipments and forecast
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

This release has significant updates and enhancements:

  • Updates to the 400G port shipment methodology, simplifying the categorization of ports. Physical port shipments are no longer defined by reach. All 100G, 200G, and 400G+ coherent port shipments are counted, as well as direct detect and 400G ZR for edge applications.
  • Added 3Q and 4Q17 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware.
  • Updated coherent port shipment market share to include Inphi ColorZ historical numbers. Despite not being a coherent solution, it does displace the use of coherent 100G and its impact should be measured.
  • The Compact Modular hardware forecast was increased again. This market continues to grow at rates that outstrip the most optimistic projections.
  • Report updates are now quarterly.

Current subscribers can download Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

OFC 2018 – Compact Modular Equipment

Compact Modular Equipment took center stage at OFC 2018. News included speed upgrades to existing systems, the emergence of new switch/router variants, and open line systems designed to address the growing interest in optical hardware disaggregation.
Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

4Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On February 14th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 4th quarter 2017 (4Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2022.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 4Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 4Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

 

We extended our forecasts for revenue and ports to 2022, and made minor adjustments to our worldwide 2019 and longer-term forecasts; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

4Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 4th quarter 2017 (4Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter as well as the entire calendar year 2017 (CY17).

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 4Q17. This Excel file contains updated data for 4Q17 and the previous forecast made during 3Q17. Updated forecasts and additional analysis will be published by March 2nd, 2018.

Analysis of the market and its participants during 4Q17 and CY17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

3Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On November 21st, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 3rd quarter 2017 (3Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 3Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 3Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

 

We made minor adjustments to our worldwide 2018 and longer-term forecasts; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

3Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 3rd quarter 2017 (3Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter.

Summary

Global spending on optical network equipment dropped for a third consecutive quarter, led by a larger than normal seasonal decline in China and weakening trends in EMEA.

  • North American spending increased again quarter-over-quarter, with positive results reported by most vendors.  Spending on Metro WDM continues to grow at the expense of LH WDM.
  • EMEA revenue fell sharply though this was the result of weakness at larger vendors – smaller vendors performed better. As in North America, LH WDM bore the brunt of the decline.
  • Last quarter was the weakest YoY revenue growth recorded in China in over 4 years as momentum from 2Q17 spending failed to continue into the third quarter. Spending trends in the region remain difficult to predict.
  • Revenue in the rest of Asia (RoAPAC) eased following breakout results in India during 2Q17 though spending remains at historically high levels.
  • Quarterly coherent 100G+ port shipments broke 100k units for the first time on a global basis. 100G+ Port shipments in China were flat QoQ and are substantially up YoY

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 3Q17. This Excel file contains only historical data, and is an interim release. A file with greater detail, including updated forecasts and additional analysis, will be available by November 27th, 2017.

Analysis of the market and its participants during 3Q17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

Analysis: 1H17 Cloud and Colo Spending Slowdown

Cignal AI’s recent Optical Customer Markets Report discovered an unexpected weakness in 2017 optical transport equipment spending from cloud & colo operators (see Cignal AI Reports Unexpected Drop in Cloud and Colo Spending). This surprising trend was then further supported by public comments later made by Juniper and Applied Optoelectronics, prompting us to examine the situation in greater detail.

This detailed brief includes:

  • Cloud & colo spending as defined by Cignal AI
  • Analysis of quarterly spending trends by cloud & colo operators
  • Recent shifts in market share among equipment vendors to this market
  • Quantitative analysis of underlying causes of this slowing, including price compression and displacement by IPoDWDM via Inphi, Acacia, and Oclaro components

Requires Optical Customer Markets subscription.

1H17 Optical Customer Markets Report

We’ve released the 1H17 edition of the Optical Customer Markets report. It provides insight into how much optical equipment different segments of network operators purchase:

  • Covers 4 global regions and five end customer types
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo (Datacenter), Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Forecasts by region and category
  • Vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo (Datacenter) customers
  • Follows strict methodology to reduce analyst subjectivity

Notable updates include:

  • Updated results for 1H17
  • Vendor market share of equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers for 1H17
  • Updated PowerPoint report summary

Subscribers can download the latest Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

ECOC2017 – Coherent 100G+

ECOC is one of the most significant conferences in optical networking worldwide. This year’s conference was held in Gothenburg, Sweden, and the event was well attended by the engineering community, as the conference trends heavy on technology and light on marketing. We at Cignal AI like ECOC because it gives us another opportunity to converse with the folks directly responsible for charting the technical roadmap of upcoming optical systems.

In this first of several ECOC briefs, we share some of our findings on the changing trends in coherent optics. Subsequent briefs will explore China and client optics.

  • CFP2-ACO Outlook – The ACO market is going away; what this means
  • Silicon Photonics – Searching for the killer app
  • Inphi ColorZ – Moving downmarket to grow volume
  • 400G ZR – Examining investment risk and rewards
  • Acacia CFP2-DCO – Market Feedback

Requires Optical Active Insight subscription.

1H17 Optical Applications Report

Our 1H17 edition of the Optical Hardware Applications report has been released.

The report contains details on the following areas:

  • Compact Modular hardware market share and forecasts
  • 100G+ Coherent port shipments vendor market share
  • 100G, 200G, and 400G+ Coherent and Direct Detect port shipments and forecast
  • Advanced Packet-OTN Switching market share and forecasts

This report includes significant updates and enhancements:

  • Initiated a coherent 400G port shipment forecast, estimating demand for 400G wavelengths in CY17 and beyond, including the upcoming 400G ZR pluggable format. The forecast also quantifies the emergence of coherent 100G in volume at the edge of the optical network. A more detailed written analysis sharing the assumptions behind this forecast will be published in the coming weeks. In the meantime, we welcome feedback on the quantitative forecast.
  • Renamed DCI Hardware category to “Compact Modular”. DCI is an application, not a hardware category, and these compact, modular chassis are being used in several applications, including DCI. As Incumbent, Cable MSO, and Wholesale operators evaluate and deploy these systems it is important that this category name better reflect the defining characteristics of these systems. A listing of the specific systems in this category can be found here.
  • Added 1H17 market share results for Compact Modular and Advanced Packet-OTN Switching equipment hardware. Also updated coherent port shipment market share to include vendor results for 1H17.
  • Compact Modular hardware forecast increased in 2017 and 2018 as result of discussions with vendors. This is a bottoms-up change with the risk that multiple vendors are double-counting the same opportunities.
  • Historical 100G+ Port Shipments adjusted to align with actual customer shipment data.

Current subscribers can download Excel and PowerPoint files.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint

2Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On August 20th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 2nd quarter 2017 (2Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 2Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A complete compilation of our 2Q17 market share and forecast analysis is available in both web format as well as .pdf format.

Excel PDF

 

We made substantial adjustments to our worldwide 2017 forecasts due to ongoing spending weakness in North America and EMEA as well as surprising strength in China; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

2Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 2nd quarter 2017 (2Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter.

Summary

Global spending on optical network equipment increased slightly, led by increased spending in China and India.

  • Optical revenue in China is up 13 percent for the first half of 2017 as compared to the same period in 2016. The weak demand reported by component makers is a result of an ongoing inventory correction (primarily at Huawei), rather than a signal of weak end market demand.
  • Huawei and ZTE both reported record shipments of 100G coherent ports in China during the quarter. The companies also showed strong revenue performance in the region.
  • North American spending increased quarter-over-quarter. Consistent with earlier Cignal AI forecasts, North America is experiencing a shift in spending from long haul to metro WDM. Ciena and Cisco are the primary beneficiaries of the double-digit year-over-year growth in NA metro WDM. Both companies grew market share, and Ciena’s North American optical equipment revenue increased by 21 percent year-over-year.
  • Outside of China and Japan, the rest of the Asia Pacific (ROAPAC) countries experienced 20 percent year-over-year growth. This region’s growth was particularly fueled by India’s Reliance Jio, which is purchasing substantial amounts of equipment from Ciena and Nokia as part of an aggressive 4G LTE expansion in the country.
  • EMEA revenue dropped substantially, stemming from sharp declines in spending in the long haul WDM and submarine systems markets. Metro WDM spending remained flat year-over-year.
  • Growth in metro WDM spending is creating greater demand for higher speed coherent ports, which are evolving from 200G to speeds as high as 400G later this year.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 2Q17. This Excel file contains only historical data, and is an interim release. A file with greater detail, including updated forecasts and additional analysis, will be available August 25th, 2017.

Report Details Excel

Analysis of the market and its participants during 2Q17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

1Q17 Optical Hardware Forecast

On June 15th, Cignal AI issued full optical equipment market share analysis for 1st quarter 2017 (1Q17). This second report extends our analysis and summarizes forecasts and outlooks for the industry through 2021.

Subscribers to the Optical Hardware Report are able to download an excel file with actual results through 1Q17 along with detailed, up-to-date forecasts. A compilation of our latest analysis is also available in both web format as well as .pdf.

Excel PDF

 

We made some material adjustments to our forecasts for 2017 in North America and China; a detailed discussion follows.

Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

1Q17 Optical Hardware Results

Cignal AI has released its 1st quarter 2017 (1Q17) optical hardware market share analysis, which includes a summary of revenue results for the quarter.

Summary

Global spending on optical network equipment eased worldwide, led by a double digit decline in North America.

  • Ciena remains the best performing company in North America (NA) as it remained immune to sharp pullbacks in long haul WDM (LH WDM) spending. NA spending continues to stall as a result of a technology transition from long haul to metro WDM capex, as well as materially lower results from Infinera – the second largest vendor in the region.
  • European (EMEA) spending was weaker although some vendors reported good results compared with 1Q16.
  • Optical equipment spending growth in China stalled as uncertainty about the outlook for 2017 rippled through the industry. Huawei remains very confident growth will return in 2H17 but its component suppliers grow increasingly negative as they receive mixed messages from the supply chain.
  • Metro WDM growth has yet to appear in order to offset sharp declines in LH WDM spending. This will change in 2017 as multiple vendors bring the technology to market. Coriant, Infinera, and Nokia have been impacted by this trend.
  • Subscribers to the Optical Hardware report can download an excel file with actual results through 1Q17. This Excel file contains only historical data, and it is an interim release. A subsequent file with updated forecasts and additional analysis will be available June 19, 2017.
Report Details Excel

Detailed analysis of the market and its participants during 1Q17 follows.
Requires Optical Hardware subscription.

2H16 Optical Customer Markets Report

Our 2H16 edition of the Optical Customer Markets report has been released.

The report provides insight into how much optical equipment specific network operators purchase:

  • Covers 4 global regions and five end customer types
  • Tracks shipments to Incumbent, Wholesale, Cloud & Colo (Datacenter), Cable MSO & Broadband, Enterprise & Government customers
  • Forecasts by region and category
  • Vendor market share for equipment sales to Cloud and Colo (Datacenter) customers
  • Follows strict methodology to reduce analyst subjectivity

Notable updates include:

  • Full year results for 2016
  • Report is enhanced with global vendor market share of equipment sales to Cloud and Colo customers
  • All forecasts extended through 2021
  • Added PowerPoint report summary

Subscribers can download Excel and PowerPoint files, and registered users can view updated report information.

Report Details Excel PowerPoint