This preliminary report briefly summarizes our Transport equipment market share analysis for 2Q24. It is released once company results for the current quarter are complete. Clients interested in real-time updates as companies report should monitor release notes and download the updated Excel file.
The final report, including detailed analysis and updated forecasts, will be available to all clients by August 30th, 2024. Clients can also register for the live presentation on September 6th, 2024 – if you register and don’t attend, you’ll still be notified when the download is available.
Summary and Highlights
Worldwide
- The worldwide optical market fell -18% in the second quarter. The comparison is against a record second quarter 2023, but sales of $3.4B are the lowest 2Q since 2018.
- Worldwide routing sales fell -27% as spending continues its return to normal levels following the first half of 2023 when it jumped 16% as vendors cleared their large backlogs. Rolling 4-quarter sales are now slightly below the market’s 2020-2022 average.
- Carrier spending may have reached its nadir, but a recovery could take several more quarters. Vendors indicate that the huge backlogs of 2023 are reduced, but not yet gone. Component vendors, whose sales lead those of equipment vendors, are reporting positive demand trends going into the second half of the year.
- Long Haul spending exceeded Metro by $325M, continuing the ongoing shift in spending due to the impact of IP-over-DWDM and Cloud long-haul builds.
Regional
- North American 1Q optical revenue dropped -19%; its fifth quarter of decline following 18 months of growth. Routing sales dropped -39% to their lowest level since 1Q20. The huge drop is in comparison to record sales in 2023 following earlier supply chain shortages.
- Optical transport sales in China dropped -17% as China Mobile’s new long-haul buildouts near completion. All domestic vendors declined, with Huawei faring best.
- Optical sales in RoAPAC fell for the second straight quarter, dropping -25% following a significant run-up in support of carriers’ 5G buildouts from 3Q22 to 3Q23.
- EMEA optical and routing sales fell -14% and -17%, respectively. Average spending for both technologies is in steady decline, the growth in 2023 likely a result of the supply chain correction experienced worldwide.
- Japanese optical sales continue to plummet; dropping -35% in 2Q24. It was the eleventh straight quarter of YoY declines following 15 consecutive quarters of growth. Sales of $54M were the lowest first quarter on record.
- Optical sales in CALA fell -13% following a 2023 in which the region grew every quarter and finished with 5% annual growth. Huawei is increasingly dominant in the region, growing 8% and increasing its market share to 53%.
Customer Markets
- Optical sales to Cloud & Colo operators worldwide grew 7% in 2Q24. In North America, where most direct Cloud operator spending occurs, sales grew 9% and have now surpassed Service Provider sales for three consecutive quarters. Rolling 4-quarter sales now exceed $400M. Vendors indicate that AI infrastructure is beginning to place traffic demands on the optical WAN.
- Service Provider optical spending declined -23% worldwide, with purchases declining
-36% in North America due to the maturation of 5G buildouts, the slow pace of inventory absorption, and the expiration of federal consumer broadband subsidies. All other global regions saw SP optical spending drop in the mid to high teens.
Release Notes
- All data through 2Q24 is complete with the exceptions of Adtran, Padtec, Ekinops, and Huawei routing, which are preliminary.
- Unless otherwise indicated, all percentages in this report show year-over-year growth.
- Ciena’s January-end quarter is reported as calendar 2Q24. Cisco’s sales data aligns with calendar 2Q24.
Vendor Summary Reports
Cignal AI’s Vendor Summary Reports focus on the most recent quarterly financial results and items of interest for select vendors. For this quarter, the following vendor reports are available:
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